Alexander Galushka | Artur Niyazmetov | Maxim Okulov
CRYSTAL GROWTH to Russian economic miracle
Alexander Galushka | Artur Niyazmetov | Maxim Okulov
CRYSTAL GROWTH to Russian economic miracle
Moscow
2021
UDC 33 BBK 65.01 G 168
Published with the support of the State Corporation Rostec, Siber JSC and RT-Okhrana JSC
Galushka A. S., Niyazmetov A. K., Okulov M. Oh.
G168
Crystal of growth to the Russian economic miracle. — M., 2021. — 360 pp., ill.
In the twentieth century, our country set a world record for average annual economic growth during 1929–1955 that remains unsurpassed. This book was written to understand the true causes of that phenomenon. To understand Russia’s economy and its true potential, the authors turn to primary sources, archival documents—including previously classified ones—global economic theory and best management practices. Analysis from today’s historical perspective allows them to propose solutions that could ensure high growth in Russia’s economy now and in the future.
ISBN 978-5-9243-0299-7
UDC 33 BCK 65.01
. . . S., Niyazmetov A. K., Okulov M. O., text, 2021
by A. Larionov. J., decoration, 2021
Contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Chapter 1. History of the growth of the domestic economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.1. History of growth: models implemented and results achieved in 1885–2019 years. . . . . 8 1.2. The Demand Model (1885–1913). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 10 1.3. Recovery model (1921–1928) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.4. Model of advance (1929–1955). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5. Model of attenuation (1956–1991). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 1.6. Model of transformation (1992–1998).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 1.7. Raw material model (1999–2019). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.8. The Future of Economics vs History. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
Chapter 2. The original idea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.1. The State of the Future by Carl Ballod . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.2. Economic Development Plan B. I. Grinevetsky . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Chapter 3. Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.1. Birth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.2. Natural productive forces (KEPS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 40 3.3. Electricity (GOELRO) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4. Organization of planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3.5. Equilibrium or development? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 3.6. Planning methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 3.7. idea of development. Big goals and projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56 3.8. Strategy. Lead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58 3.9. The pace and proportions. Balances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 3.10. State Planning in World Economic Theory
and foreign practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69
Chapter 4. Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 4.1. Imports of human capital and technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 4.2. Albert Kahn and Ernst May. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89 4.3. Cooperation with foreign companies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 4.4. Cooperation with the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 4.5. Cooperation with Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 113 4.6. Education and science. Entering the advanced level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7. Post-war recovery and subsequent general growth
Technological Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 4.8. Creating the latest technologies and industries: at the leading positions in the world . . . . . . . . . 125 4.9 Informatization of the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 4.10. Technology and Human Capital in World Economic Theory
and foreign practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Chapter 5. Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 5.1. Credit reform 1930–1932 Gov. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 5.2. Two lines of money: an innovative solution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 5.3. Supernational money: rouble translation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
5.4. Creating money for development in world economic theory
and practice abroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
159
Chapter 6. Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 169 6.1. Cost reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2. Increased productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 6.3. Competition (competition) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 178 6.4. Material incentives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 6.5. Feedback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6. Efficiency: World Economic Theory and Modern Practice. . . . . . . . . . 183
Chapter 7. Entrepreneurship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 187 7.1. Artels: product diversity and production initiative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2. Personal household farms: food for the country and income for peasants . . . . 195 198 7.3. Entrepreneurship: World Economic Theory and Implemented Practice . . . .
Chapter 8. Crystal of Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 8.1. Integrity: elements are organized into a whole . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 8.2. Energy: Sources and Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 8.3. Man: The fruits are received by men . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 8.4. Perspective: the image of the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 8.5. Theory: The formula is not disclosed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
Chapter 9. Liquidation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 9.1. Liquidation: the beginning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 9.2. Elimination of Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 9.3. Liquidation of personal household farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 9.4. Elimination of Artels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 9.5. Elimination of planning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 9.6. Elimination of high rates of technological growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 9.7. Elimination of two contours of money and the transferable ruble. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 9.8. Liquidation: results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
Chapter 10. Crystallization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 10.1. Crystallization of planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 10.2. Crystallization of technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 10.3. Crystallization of money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280 10.4. Crystallization of efficiency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 10.5. Crystallization of entrepreneurship. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
Instead of a conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Annex 1. Contribution of forced labor of prisoners, loans from the population,
Peasants in the National Economy 1929–1955 Gov. . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 Annex 2. Strategy of population saving in the Russian Federation 2050 St Petersburg.. . . . . . . 310 Annex 3. Guaranteed certificate working mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322 Annex 4. From beginning to end. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 Annex 5. Reference materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328 List of sources used . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339
We need to take fire from the past, not ashes.
Jean Jares
PREFACE
The history of economics, along with economic theory and statistics, is the main source for understanding economics, and it is economic history that is the most important of them.
Joseph Schumpeter
The future. Every person, family, community, society wants to see him happy and prosperous. And it is created from the present, relying on the mind to use the accumulated potential of the past. It is history that contains important ideas and recipes for our present, in which we can and should purposefully build a better — happy future. And it is the past, alas, that is sometimes subject to distorted, unreliable assessments due to emotions, political conjuncture and the lack of an adequate historical approach.
The past. In the twentieth century, during 1929–1955, excluding the four war years, our country’s economy recorded the world’s highest average annual growth rates—double-digit growth sustained for more than twenty years. Assessments of this historical period have swung from the extreme of approving what is impossible to accept to denying what can and should be used.
The present. "The big things are seen from a distance," and today, after ten years, you can look at this period from a historical and strategic height, separating the grain from the chaff. This is facilitated by many documents that were previously secret, and now declassified. This is driven by serious challenges of today, requiring the search for an effective economic model of the future, the determination of the right goals and grounds for development. It is, after all, our duty — the duty of posterity — with love for Russia, to objectively and impartially explore and describe what our previous generations have been able to do. To learn from this, to take all the best that can in the present serve the development of the Motherland, the well-being and prosperity of our species at a new historical stage.
Names and times. The text deliberately omits names and titles that still have a pronounced emotional, ideological coloring and, due to this perception, obscure the real content of the created economic mechanisms and implemented management decisions. For ease of perception, the past names of public administration bodies in a number of cases have been replaced by functional analogues and synonyms that are understandable to the modern reader. This is not the case for most of the time. The past is analyzed exclusively through the prism of a look into the future with a sound mind of the researcher, taking into account the modern practical experience of public administration and economic activity.
6
Foreword
The main thing. You can’t go twice in one river, and time only moves forward. Pro-shlosh is unique. The presented material is subordinated to the main principle: a substantive study of the key factors of record growth of the domestic economy in the period 1929–1955 * The analysis of compliance of key growth factors with world theories and the best foreign practices of the organization of economic systems, determination of decisions and key factors of the economic model of the future of Russia on the basis of today’s decisions.
Gratitude. The authors express their deep gratitude to B. C. Alyoshin, A. N. I'll- I'll- I'll- I'll- I'll, A. R. Belousov, S. L. Bondarchuk, P. M. Wolves, D. R. Kalimulina, S. B. Kachaevu, S. B. Kiriyenko, E. E. Kuznetsova, A. L. Overchuk, M. C. Oreshkin, A. M. Osipova, Epi-scope Pankratia (Zherdev), S.E. Prokofiev, V. R. Solovyov, V. A. Fadeev, R. H. Tsa-lyakovu, S. B. Chemezov, E. Oh. Shchegolev for invaluable assistance in the preparation of this book, informative comments and valuable advice in finding solutions to the issues raised in this work.
In conclusion, I must say that the publication would not have taken place without the support of the State Corporation Rostec and its CEO S. B. Chemezov, as well as the company JSC "Siber", which provided sponsorship in the publication of the book.
* If after 1955 Significant positive changes occur in the growth factors of the economy, they are also considered and described in order to take into account the best solutions for shaping the model of future economic development.
Chapter 1. HISTORY OF GROWTH
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
By their fruits you will know them. Mob.: 7:16
1.1. History of growth: implemented models and achieved
results in the years 1885–2019
In the history of Russia, different economic models have been implemented, with different internal
content and the actual result.
Current research 1 allows us to compare these results, using approximately comparable data on the growth of the domestic economy, starting from 1885 years to the present day.
Below is a graph of the average annual growth under different models of management of eco-
implemented in Russia *.
Average annual growth rate, %
12,7
13,8
3,4
–11,7
4,9
3,8
–3,7
–6,8
20
15
10
5
0
–5
–10
1885– 1913
1914– 1920
1921– 1928
1929– 1955*
1941– 1945
1956– 1991
1992– 1998
1999– 2019
* Excluding the four years of the Great Patriotic War (1941–1945)
Rice. 1. History of the growth of the domestic economy (1885–2019 Gov.)2
* For relative comparison, Annex 5 shows the chart of per capita growth of domestic
Economic growth in the United States from 1885 to 2014.
8
Chapter 1. History of the growth of the domestic economy
The periods on the chart correspond to the periods of implementation of various economic models, which differ in their internal content - the key factors that determine economic growth.
Separately, there are periods of war that are fundamentally special for the country’s economy (1914–1920 — World War I and Civil War; 1941–1945 — Great Patriotic War), when the economy did not grow, but fell.
Thus, with the exception of the period of war, six fundamentally different internal content models with different personal results have been implemented in the domestic economy.
1.2. Demand model (1885–1913)
A model of economy in which demand determines supply. With the prevailing market relations, private property, with 1889 stable and freely convertible national currency - "golden ruble", significant attraction of foreign direct investment, foreign financing and, as a consequence, significant - the largest in the world to 1913 - external debt *.
During 1885–1913, average annual economic growth was 3.4%. Two stages can be distinguished within this model (Fig. 2): from 1885 to 1906, with average annual growth of 2.8%; and from 1907 to 1913, the period of Pyotr Arkadyevich Stolypin’s reforms, with higher average annual growth (5.2%—among the highest economic growth rates in the world at that time), when the state, drawing on previously accumulated capacity, organises a major project to develop the country’s east, actively stimulates economic activity and issues…
Average annual growth rate, %
5,2
2,8
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1885–1906
1907–1913
Figure 2. Economic growth rates from 1885 to 1913
* In general, the domestic economy 1913 the Year of the Child 5 place in the world after the United States, Germany, Great Britain, France, lagging behind in particular in terms of industrial production in 14,3 From the United States, in 6 From Germany, in 4,6 From the UK, in 2,5 the average yield of bread in France 1909–1913 The roof behind 3,4 From Germany and in 2 In France, in terms of productivity 9 from the United States. - E. Mr. Yasin, Russian economy. Origins and panorama of market reforms. — Moscow, 2019, with. 16–17.
9
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
land to peasants and organises the necessary state support. An almost twofold increase in growth rates becomes a visible result of the new state strategy and organisation of the economy.
1.3. Recovery model (1921–1928)
The New Economic Policy (NEP). After the destructive war of World War I and especially the destructive Civil War, there is a partial return to market relations, competition, private property, stable and freely convertible national currency - the "golden chervonets", attracting foreign investment in the form of concessions, foreign financing and, as a result, an increase in foreign debt.
In the period 1921–1928 years, the average annual growth of the economy is 12,7 %.
Average annual growth rate, %
14,8
2,8
6,7
K 1928 The level of the main indicators of the economic development of the country exceeds the level of 1913 years in the following amounts: 19 % — National income; 20 % — Light Industry; 32 % — industry as a whole; 33 % — Agriculture; 36 % — fixed assets; 55 % — heavy industry. From the point of view of economic growth, the NEP model is innovative, initially high rates are due to the effect of a very "low base". And in the second half 1920The effect of the "low base" is exhausted - the growth rate of the economy is significantly reduced. 3).
1927–1928
1921–1926
1.4. Advance model (1929–1955)
The basis of the model is the advanced development of supply - the creation of new and modernization of existing industries and industries, which, in turn, leads to an increase in income and domestic demand. That is, in this model, supply is ahead and determines demand, not vice versa.
10
Figure 3. Economic growth rates from 1921 to 1928
CRYSTAL GROWTH Chapter 1. History of the growth of the domestic economy
The core of the advance model is a new industrialization - in fact, the transfer of the economy to a new technological order organized by the state. The starting factor for assessing the potential for creating new industries and industries, as well as for the advanced creation of basic infrastructure (primarily electricity) is the purposeful study and reliable assessment of the available natural productive forces: natural resources and energy sources.
For the practical realization of potential, technologies are needed, a significant part of which is absent in the country. Therefore, at the initial stage of industrialization, the direct carriers of the world's best technologies are attracted from abroad and the necessary equipment is purchased. And in parallel with this, the national scientific, technological and educational school is being restored.
At the end of industrialization, the core of the advance model is the advanced level of technological development of the economy organized by the state, both due to the constant and frontal modernization of previously created industries and industries, and due to innovations - the creation of new industries and fundamentally new industries. The basis for this development of the economic system is the national scientific, technological and educational schools.
The economy is organized as a single holistic system in which its constituent enterprises are aimed at contributing to the overall result - the growth of the entire economy. Important features of the economic system that allow you to set large and at the same time achievable goals are a high concentration of resources, large economies of scale, resource balance.
The key to the consistently maintained high growth rates and efficiency of the economic system is the purposeful development of the specialization of its components - specific enterprises and their cooperation among themselves, the elimination of parallelism, as well as the use of the following key mechanisms for improving efficiency:
- targeted and regular cost reduction (with simultaneous growth of product quality) by all enterprises, corresponding regular wholesale and retail prices;
— targeted and regular increase in labor productivity (center-
increased production standards);
- pay for the result, not for the time spent: piecemeal and differential
torn;
competition (competition) between individual enterprises, labor collectives, employees for the best contribution to the achievement of development goals;
- material stimulation of those who have distinguished themselves in such competition; - dissemination of the best economic, organizational, technological and other practices born as a result of competition: centralized collection of the best decisions along the vertical of individual enterprises with their subsequent scaling horizontally throughout the economy.
11
Average annual growth rate, %
14,5
13,0
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1929–1940
1946–1955
Figure 4. Growth rates of the economy in the period from 1929 to 1955 (except for the period of the Great Patriotic War 1941–1945)
The monetary system is subordinated to the tasks of economic growth. It creates two separate contours of money - cash and non-cash. The cashless cash circuit provides settlements between enterprises and the necessary long-term financing of investments in the advanced creation of means of production, in the personal monetary circuit - population distribution and retail turnover. An integral part of the macro-level funding is the purposeful support of the correspondence of natural and cash flows, which excludes inflation.
The entrepreneurial initiative in the form of artels, handicrafts, personal household farms provides consumer diversity - produces most of the basic food and a significant part of the goods of mass demand (wide consumption). The state provides quick registration, favorable administrative conditions, affordable financing, technological development, tax incentives and other measures to support entrepreneurial initiative.
The actual performance of the advance model is the highest in the history of the domestic economy. Moreover, as in the period mainly catching up with the leading foreign economies stage (1929– 40 Gov.) — 14,5 % average annual growth and development as one of the two leaders of the world economy (1946–55 Gov.) — 13 % Average annual growth (Rice. 4).
1.5. Model of attenuation (1956–1991)
During this period, the elimination of key
factors of the advance model:
- rejection of large development goals, transition to goal setting from what has been achieved (since 1956), with the subsequent transformation of the state system into a system of bidding for the distribution of resources among various groups of influence;
12
CRYSTAL GROWTH Chapter 1. History of the growth of the domestic economy
- rejection of the integral development of a single economic system first (1957) in favor of territorial economic fragmentation ("co-ordination"), then (1965) in favor of the actual and finally (1987) legal autonomy of hundreds of thousands of individual enterprises - the actual priority of the interests of individual enterprises over the interests of the development of the economy as a whole;
- Elimination of efficiency - reprogramming the economy from efficient and anti-cost to inefficient and costly first (1956) by eliminating centralized, regular increase in productivity targets and elimination of material incentives to reduce costs and then (1965) by eliminating as such the goal of reducing costs and establishing the "cost" goals of enterprises - gross output and profits of enterprises, calculated from
- Elimination of advanced technological development by replacing (1955) the goal of introducing new technology for the purpose of "scientific and technical propaganda outside the development of new technology" and the actual replacement of the state-organized system of frontal introduction of new and latest technology in the economy with Fragmentary advanced technological development (mainly in the military-industrial complex);
- Elimination of entrepreneurial initiative (1956–1960 years) - artels, personal and old household farms - elimination of consumer diversity, the beginning of a shortage of food and goods of mass demand (high consumption);
Elimination of the two-circuit monetary model (1987) - the ability to convert cashless money intended for long-term financing of capital investments and settlements between enterprises - hyperinflation, acute shortage of goods, a strong decline in capital investments, disruptions in the movement of natural flows, chaos of the economic system.
Overall, between 1956 and 1991 there has been a steady decline in economic growth. Due to the significant inertia of development and a large margin of strength of the previously created economic system, the average annual growth rate of the economy in this period is 4,9 %.
In terms of economic growth, the model of this period is fading. Economic growth is due to the inertia of descent from the “high base” of double-digit and long-term growth rates.
Figure 5 shows the persistence of attenuation. It should be noted that within this period, along with the elimination of key growth factors in the economic system, a fundamental innovation is being implemented, the idea and goal of which is formulated at the end of the 1940-ies. From 1964 to 1990, supranational money is working for the first time in the world.
13
Average annual growth rate, %
7,8
5,3
1956–1965
1966–1985
1986–1991
0,3
8
6
4
2
0
Figure 5. Economic growth rates from 1956 to 1991
The translated rub. It preserves the national currencies and the issuing power of all countries participating in foreign economic relations and allows in the international trade to do without the national currencies of third countries *. For 25 years, it has served foreign economic relations between the countries of the Council of Economic Mutual Assistance (CMEA), as well as their foreign economic relations with the market economies of countries such as Finland, Mexico, Iraq, etc. This innovation is comparable in its importance and scale with the key factors of the advance model.
1.6. Transformation model (1992–1998)
During this period, there is a radical transformation of the economic system - the transition to a demand economy, in which not the development of supply and the creation of new industries leads to economic growth, income and domestic demand, but on the contrary, current demand determines the boundaries of supply and development of industries.
As part of this transition, mass privatization of individual enterprises, as a rule, previously formed as part of an integral production and technological chain; liberalization and transition to market relations; development of competition, including through increased imports; a relatively focused course is being pursued to reduce inflation, maintain a stable exchange rate of the national currency; attracting foreign financing, which generates a significant increase in the debt burden on the economy.
* V 1969 the International Monetary Fund also launches supranational money - special drawing rights (SDR), They are still working, and in 1979 In the framework of the European Economic Community, supranational money is also launched - the European currency unit (ECU), which is transformed into 1999 the Euro Year.
14
Within the framework of this model, the organizational role of the state in the development of the economy is reduced. The stake is placed on market self-organization. Due to the fact that the implementation of the program of radical reforms diametrically change the fundamental principles of building an economic system, there is a large transformational decline. That is, the dynamics of the economy — its fall — is due to transformation.
0
–2
–4
–6
–8
–10
–12
Chapter 1. History of the growth of the domestic economy
Average annual growth rate, %
1992–1994
1995–1998
–2,9
–12,0
During the period c 1992 by 1998 The average annual decline in the economy is 6,8 %. At the same time, my large average annual decline in the economy — 12 % The first three years of radical reforms 1992 by 1994 year. V August 1998 The state is forced (due to a lack of financial resources) refuses to service its formed in previous years, financial obligations, which is accompanied by a significant fall in the ruble exchange rate.
Figure 6. The rate of economic decline in the period from 1992 to 1998
During 35 years (1956–1991), the decline is accumulating a significant lag in the domestic economy from the leading economies of the West in terms of efficiency and technologies in the civil sector. The transformational gap of previously formed integrated production and technological chains, the loss of concentration and economies of scale by many sectors of the economy, is layered on this. As a result, the opening of economic borders leads mainly to a significant displacement of domestic production by foreign industries until the cessation of the existence of individual industries - the reduction of jobs and domestic demand - the primitivization of the economy and its structure to the level of the raw material model.
1.7. Raw material model (1999–2019)
Within this model in the history of the domestic economy should be allocated two
periods that differ significantly in terms of economic growth.
The first period — 1999–2008 — average annual economic growth is 6,9 %, primarily due to the growth of world energy prices. During this period, there has been a significant increase in revenues from energy exports to the country. Revenues are not just for exporters. State
15
Average annual growth rate, %
6,9
1,0
1999–2008
2009–2019
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
It organizes the repayment of external debts, the creation of internal reserves and the distribution of a significant part of these revenues in favor of citizens. As a result, the country's debt is greatly reduced (to one of the lowest among the leading economies of the world), reserves are significantly increasing, and since 2000 there has been a significant increase in real incomes of the population, which is in different years from 8,7 to 14,9 %. By the end of this period, this trend is exhausted: the rate of one hundred real incomes of the population is 2,4 % in 2008.
Figure 7. Economic growth rates from 1999 to 2019
The second period — 2009–2019 — the average annual economic growth is 1 %, primarily due to the fact that by the end of 2008 the possibilities of significant economic growth on the basis of the commodity model are fundamentally exhausted even at very high world prices for energy. Significant growth in income of the population is stopped, and since 2014 real incomes of the population annually fall.
1.8. The Future of Economics vs History
In connection with the exhaustion of the previous raw material growth model of the domestic economy and the goal set by the Head of State in his Address to the Federal Assembly to increase the rate of economic growth of 3, it is necessary to determine a model capable of ensuring high economic growth.
Outstanding world economist, author of the innovative theory of economic development Joseph Schumpeter (1883–1950) Let us begin with the elementary question: what distinguishes an economist from all other people who think, speak and write on economic topics? First of all, knowledge of the technique of analysis in three areas: history, statistics and "theory". Of these fundamental areas of analysis, economic history, which leads us to today’s facts and includes them, is undoubtedly the most important 4.
Therefore, the professional definition of the model of the future economic growth implies a substantive understanding of the model that provided the highest growth in the history of the domestic economy.
16
CRYSTAL GROWTH Chapter 1. History of the growth of the domestic economy
The transition to the consideration of the key factors of the model that ensured the highest growth in the history of the domestic economy should begin with a brief description of the key initial conditions of 1929 and the results achieved in 1955.
1929 - Key initial conditions. Lack of low base effect. In relation to 1913, all major
The curtains are significantly exceeded.
Sanctions. There are no diplomatic relations, and the country is not officially recognised by the USA, Spain, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria or Yugoslavia. From the second half of the 20s, the governments of the world’s largest economies—the USA, England, France and Germany—actively resort to sanctions and embargoes, including refusing to accept gold as payment for imports, imposing a “credit blockade” and applying “anti-dumping” sanctions. In 1930, the USA introduces restrictions on supplies of asbestos, manganese and timber. In 1930, France introduces special licences for imports of major goods from our country; three years later, it imposes a 25% duty on them. In 1933, Great Britain imposes an embargo on 80% of the goods supplied by our country.
Debts and reserves. Foreign debt to private American firms exceeds 350 Millions of dollars against 150 Millions of dollars of all reserves of the Central Bank, including gold reserves — 138 tons 5.
Modern industries and new technologies. There are no competences and technologies in a number of modern sectors of the economy, including: machine tools, non-ferrous metallurgy, chemical industry, automotive industry, agricultural machinery, aviation industry. Guys. Population — 154 million people, the average life expectancy of the population
The date is 43 6.
On the threshold of world war. The army has 100 Infantry Divisions, 90 Tanks, a little more 100 Armoured vehicles and 7034 guns. The production of modern tanks and aircraft is absent. All the leading countries of the world proceed from the inevitability of a new world war. French Marshal Foch, signing in November 1918 The German government has signed a ceasefire agreement, saying: “This is not peace. This is a truce for 20 years".
The years 1929–1955 are the key results of economic growth. The economy is growing 14 times, taking first place in the Euro and second place in the world. The average annual growth of the economy minus four war years is 13,8 % 7.
Debts and reserves. There is no external public debt. Gold reserves of ...
supply 2 050 tons - the second place in the world 8.
First place in the world in terms of the share of engineering in the total volume of production
Thought products.
Full technical and economic independence of the state is ensured. First place in the world in the level of mechanization of agriculture. First place in Europe and second in the world in absolute size of industry.
17
First place in Europe and second in the world in terms of labor productivity
in industry.
The latest industries and advanced technologies: nuclear, space, rocket, aircraft, instrument, radio, electronic, electrical and others. From the point of view of the saturation of sectors of the economy with new technology and technologies, the domestic economy and industry have the youngest production and technical apparatus in the world 9. In general, the national scientific and technological school and education reach the world level.
The people. Life expectancy increased by 26 years. The population increased by 46 million people *, or by 20 million excluding territories incorporated into the country. Quality, accessible education and healthcare. Real wages increased 4 times, and citizens’ deposits in savings banks increased 5 times 10. Workers’ real incomes increased 6 times and peasants’ incomes 6.5 times compared with 1913 11.
Victory in the Great Patriotic War is not. The economic system has stood the hardest test and has become the key to victory in the most destructive and destructive war not in world history. In the shortest possible time, the unique complexity and unprecedented in its scale task of evacuation and rapid restart of a critical mass of production facilities necessary for supplying the army and ensuring vital activity in wartime conditions is being solved.
Thus, high economic growth in 1929–1955 years: - does not occur from a low base; - does not occur at the expense of increasing debt; - does not occur at the expense of a favorable world situation; - occurs despite the bloodiest and most destructive in world history
How about in the middle of this period (1941–1945 years);
accompanied by a large increase in life expectancy, the number of ...
Villages and their income.
At the same time, there is a system of forced labor of prisoners and so-called special settlers in its entirety, including the work of convicted murderers, rapists, bandits, thieves, fraudsters, etc.:
- covers an average of 1,65 % of the population of the country; - is ineffective - the cost of labor of prisoners, despite its
free, as a rule, higher than the cost of labor;
— makes a negative contribution to economic growth — is unprofitable — the cost of maintaining the system of forced labor is greater than its contribution to the economy (for more details see Appendix 1).
* According to the calculations of Rosstat, if not for four years of war, the population of the country would have increased by 1955 by almost 100 million people (the Great Patriotic War, Jubilee Statistical Collection, Rosstat, Moscow, 2015).
18
CRYSTAL GROWTH Chapter 1. History of the growth of the domestic economy
Conclusion: the advance model implemented in the period 1929–1955, minus four war years, provides the largest average annual (13,8 %) and long-term (22) economic growth in the national history.
It should be noted that the double-digit (more 10 %) Average annual growth of the economy during 20 and more years in the world history of economic growth XX - two decades XXI Centuries ago, there was only one 5 Countries: China, South Korea, Taiwan, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Botswana.
At the same time, the large economic growth in the UAE and Botswana is a very special and low-profile case - this is the growth of the economy of a small country (the population of both countries during the period of growth of less than or about 1 million people) entirely due to the development of deposits and production of raw materials (in the UAE - the development of oil fields, in Botswana - the development of diamond deposits). Therefore, the growth of these countries can be excluded from consideration.
It is also important to add that in the twentieth century, another 2 countries of the world - Japan and Singapore - have achieved very close to double-digit (more than 9 %) and long (more than 20 years) average annual economic growth.
It is noteworthy that the large and at the same time continuous growth of these foreign economies has common principal features:
- the decisive importance of the leadership, organizing role of the state, which fulfills this role intelligently, creatively, inventively (it is appropriate to recall such names as Deng Xiaoping and Lee Kuan Yew);
effective synthesis of the best aspects of state planning and market self-organization, including a combination of high-quality strategic planning, development of large-scale development projects, concentration of resources on priorities and creation of favorable conditions for investment, development of entrepreneurship;
- subordination of the financial system to the goals of economic growth, ensuring
economy with cheap and long money;
— meritocracy, mass use and implementation of the world’s best technological, managerial, economic practices, and at the same time the development of own technologies and human capital, national science, education, innovation, as well as material and social incentives for effective labor, including “social elevators” of development;
- reliance in the development of the economy on national traditions, history, culture. And also rationally selected the best - the most productive - ideas of international philosophical, political, economic and social thought. And their creative application to specific national conditions.
Data on countries whose economies grew in the twentieth century more than 20 years
at a significant (almost double-digit) rate, is given below 12.
19
CHRIST LL GROWTH
1. 13.8% — Russia — average annual growth over 22 years (1929–1955). 2. 11.5% — Taiwan — average annual growth over 27 years (1947–1973). 3. 10.4% — China — average annual growth over 25 years (1983–2007). 4. 10.2% — South Korea — average annual growth over 23 years (1966–1988). 5. 9.7% — Japan — average annual growth over 23 years (1948–1970). 6. 9.2% — Singapore — average annual growth over 24 years (1966–1989). Thus, in the twentieth century, the world’s highest national economic growth sustained for more than 20 years was achieved in our country during 1929–1955, excluding the four war years.
Taking this phenomenon into account when forming a model of future economic growth requires paying close attention to our own experience of record economic growth in the world.
The following questions should be answered in this regard. I. What decisions have led to record growth of the domestic economy? II. What decisions led to the loss of high growth of the domestic economy? III. How to use this experience and what solutions are needed today to achieve
High and sustained growth of the Russian economy?
Chapter 2. THE OUTSTANDING ZAMSEL
The mustard seed, which, when sown in the earth, is the least of all the seeds on the earth; and when sown, it grows up and is renewed the most of all the grains.
Mk. 4:30–31
2.1. The State of the Future by Carl Ballod
V 1898 In Germany, under the pseudonym "Atlanticus", Car-la-Balloda's study "The State of the Future. Production and Consumption in the Social State. Most of the book is a rigorous mathematical calculation and statistical calculations, united by the central idea: "With proper organization of production, subject to the use of all possible technical improvements at the moment, the level of well-being of the people will increase, the income of the worker can be increased up to three times, and the working time is better doubled." 13.
Ballod himself formulates the main task of his work “The State of the Future” as follows: “Real labor sets itself the task of investigating the social system from the point of view of expediency, of determining whether the modern development of technology and science, applied to the total national economy, in conjunction with natural factors (natural production forces. — Approx. av-tory), such a significant expansion of production that would both burn the nation. For, properly speaking, the core and essence of the social question lies in the creation of better conditions of existence for the people, in the significant improvement of their situation 14.
The development of the economic model of the future Ballod produces on the example of the German economy. Therefore, it proceeds from the assessment of its natural productive forces and begins economic modeling with the electrification and reorganization of the structure of the rural economy: "Each of the power plants will be able to serve 10 large agricultural enterprises located on an area of 200 hectares." Next, Ballod assesses the additional possibility of increasing yields due to the centralized introduction of advanced technologies: “soil treatment, fertilizers, melio-radio”. In this case, it is possible to reduce the number of arable land and the number of people employed in agriculture. And finally, he proposes a rational mechanization of agriculture: "It would be possible to establish entire factories producing one single product.
Figure 8. Carl Ballod, The State of the Future
21
special type of [agricultural] machines. Making them in such factories by means of a developed division of labor could be so cheap that they would cost three or even four times less than at present 15. By careful calculations, Ballod shows that with this model of organization of agriculture, it is possible to increase production by up to three times and reduce the number of workers in rural areas 60 %, freeing them to work in industry.
Starting with agriculture, the economist consistently examines and calculates the effects of centralization, the use of natural productive forces, electrification and the introduction of modern technologies for the main sectors of the economy: engineering, metallurgy, mining, chemical industry, manufacturing, rail transportation, flour milling, etc.
As a result, the volume and careful economic calculations of the national income and its distribution Ballod mathematically proves the conclusion that in the organizational economy the income of workers can reasonably be increased up to three times 16.
Thus, Ballod does not make arbitrary additions, and even more so does not allow utopian constructions. The paper reasonably shows what it is possible to transform the economy, if you study and use its natural production forces, centrally electrify, organize according to plan, take advantage of all available and advanced technical means of production. Having performed thorough calculations on the example of the German economy, Ballod mathematically proves the possibility of significantly increasing the level of well-being of the people at the expense of another organization of the economic system. Editor of the first edition of the book in Russian (1906), future Minister of Finance M. Bernatsky describes the quality of the research: "Ballod's erudition and scientific integrity are beyond doubt, and the book "The State of the Future" is ... a statistical-economic treatise compiled according to all the rules of academic discipline" 18.
Carl Ballod (20 June 1864, Russia, Riga County — 13 January 1931, Riga), an outstanding scientist - economist, econometrician, demographer. He is self-educated and in 1883 The year ends with the external anthem in Jelgava. Studying Theology in Dorpat (1884–1887), in 1888 He is ordained as a Lutheran pastor. V 1891–1892 He studies geography at the University of Jena in Germany and defends his doctoral thesis. V 1893–1895 He serves as a pastor in the Urals of Russia, doing research on demography and statistics. C 1895 University of Munich and Strasbourg studies economics. The work of the German philosopher Johann Fichte "The Closed Trade State" (1800) It is an important development of their economic views. Professor at the Universities of Berlin and Latvia. V 1897 It is a study of the demographic processes of Russia, for which 20 December 1898 It is awarded the Grand Gold Medal of the St. Petersburg Academy of Sciences and the Dmitry Tolstoy Prize (the highest academic awards of Russia at that time). V 1898 In Germany, under the pseudonym "Atlantikus", he publishes his most significant work "The State of the Future"17
22
CRYSTAL GROWTH Chapter 2. The original intention
The author himself, speaking about the results, notes: “In aggregate, this study gives a picture of what is achievable in a social state with a centralized organization.” 19.
As a result, Carl Ballod comes to the following main conclusions about the key factors:
Better organization of the economy.
One. According to the plan, the “centralized organization of the economy” as a whole, using the available natural productive forces, allows to reduce supply and demand, significantly save national resources, avoid parallelism, and get economic growth due to high concentration and large economies of scale.
Two. "Electrification of the national economy" creates the basic condition for the development of
the economy of all sectors.
Three. The purposeful "implementation of science and technology" is the next basic condition for the development of all sectors of the economy, provides its advanced technological level.
Four. Entrepreneurial initiative: "Production of luxury goods, furniture, construction of private dwellings, gardening and gardening, home economics can be provided without any prejudice to private initiative" 20. At the same time, in necessary cases, the state offers to redeem the property at a fair market value with an additional premium to the owner for forced expropriation.
Fifth. A focus on large farms in agricultural production makes agriculture as a whole more efficient. “But is it conceivable that five million small farmers, usually possessing neither capital nor knowledge, and often including lazy and careless people, could achieve a substantial increase in yields as quickly as one hundred thousand large state enterprises equipped with all the latest improvements and systematically directed by scientifically trained agronomists?” 21 Alongside the creation of large state agricultural enterprises, “each family should, at its request, receive from the state a plot of approximately ¼–½ hectare in hereditary possession, for a house and garden” 22.
Ballod mathematically proves and rationally substantiates the key factors of creation within one - individual - country of economy of qualitatively higher level of public welfare. In the center of Ballod’s work is an eco-nomist, but the scientist also touches on the extra-economic foundations of the state of the future, believing that there should be a traditional institution of marriage, a respect for religions (he calls Christianity “highly socialist”), a monarchy is possible.
In 1920 in Moscow published a significantly revised edition of the book "The State of the Future". The head of state in his article "On a single economic plan",
23
Exodus 22 February 1921, [Ballaud] drew up a scientific plan for the re-construction of the entire German national economy 23.
V December 1920 Russia has approved a state plan for the electrification of the country - GOELRO. An unprecedented case - in the program document of such a high political and economic level there is a whole section called "German project of Professor K. Balloda." The GOELRO Plan, in particular, notes: "For Germany we have a very curious attempt to create a single state plan for its socialized economy in a well-known work of prof. Balloda, "The State of the Future." Relying on the rich achievements of German technology and excellent production statistics, Germany ... through 3–4 years of quiet creative work turns into a happy country of universal contentment and well-being 24.
In December 1930 the program article of the chairman of the GOELRO Commission and the first chairman of the Gosplan Grigory Maximilianovich Krzhizhanovsky "To the tenth anniversary of GOELRO" is published. The head of the preparation of the plan for the electrification of the country and the plans of the first five-year plan writes: "The experience of the past should have been thoroughly studied, and not without reason the main employees of GOELRO should have known the work of Atlan-tiksa - "The State of the Future" ... We took from the rich technical and economic arsenal <Balloda> everything that could and should have taken" 25.
2.2. Economic Development Plan B. I. Grinevetsky
In the December article 1930 To the tenth anniversary of GOELRO, Grigory Maximiliano-Vich Krzhizhanovsky, speaking of the mandatory study by members of the GOELRO Commission and planners of the best, outstanding works in the field of organizing economy and planning, along with the book "The State of the Future" by Professor Karl Ballod, directly indicates only one more work - the book "Post-war Prospects of the Russian Industry." The book is in the library of the Head of State (1917–1924 Gov.).26
In 1918 Grinevetsky released his research "Post-war prospects of Russian industry" in Kharkov. Famous Russian publicist, economist, philosopher N. B. Valentinov writes about this study: "Nothing like this existed in Russian economic literature until then." 27
If the basis of the planned constructions of Professor Ballod are strict economic and mathematical calculations, then the basis of Professor Grinevetsky’s plans is an “engineering”, structural description of the economic system, an accurate diagnosis of bottlenecks and the most important development problems, a clear definition of approaches and ways to solve them. It makes a significant contribution to another important part.
Figure 9. Book V.I. Grinevets - who "Post-war performances of the Russian industry"
24
CRYSTAL GROWTH Chapter 2. The original intention
Planning is the correct definition of the structure of the economic system, the essence of economic problems and development opportunities, the formulation of an accurate goal and plan for the future organization of the economic system.
The work "Post-war prospects of the Russian industry" is first of all a highly professional and highly informative text with a significant, deep excursion into the history of the development of the Russian industry.
According to Grinevetsky, which fully coincides with the opinion of J. Schumpeter, the history of economics is a necessary foundation, knowing which, it is possible to offer a true, viable organization of its future development. Grinevetsky, like Karl Ballod, does not make arbitrary assumptions and utopian constructions.
Grinevetsky proposes the idea of a unified economic plan of the country as a key organizing document for the revival and re-creation of the domestic economy and emphasizes: "The reconstruction of industry should be thought of as a very complex process, not only having little resemblance to a simple restoration, but making deep and diverse changes in all aspects of the matter." 29. The scientist believes it is necessary to combat the 1918 The “economic separatism” and the fragmentation of the economy consider this as an economic evil. The struggle against economic sep-ratism, the disintegrated parts of Russia as a single economic organism, is dictated by the deep economic interests of each of the most important parts ... and should become a vivid slogan of a reasonable and active economic policy. 30 Pays the most important attention in this matter to the need to restore “multilateral”, “bloody interested” economic ties between Russia and Ukraine.
Vasily Ignatievich Grinevetsky (2 (14) June 1871 Russia, Kiev — 27 March 1919, Ekaterinodar) is an outstanding Russian scientist in the field of industry, heat engineering, professor, an authoritative representative of engineering science. The author of the methodology for calculating steam boilers, steam engines and internal engines. V 1914 He is elected director of the Moscow Technical School (now MSTU). N. Uh. Bauman). Creates a system of training engineers, which teaches almost all prominent domestic engineers and designers of that time. Together with Professor K. B. Kirsham founded the Moscow scientific thermal engineering school27
The central place in the planned constructions of Grinevetsky is occupied by the system algorithm of revival and development of the economy, its main stages and their sequence:
First stage - electrification, recovery and increase of fuel supply
and raw materials;
- the second - the development of transport; - the third - technological development and technical re-equipment of the economy;
25
- the fourth - the growth of labor productivity; - the fifth - the protection of the domestic market from imports; - the sixth - the growth of the capacity of the domestic market through the modernization of the structure
industry;
Seventh, attract investment. For each stage, Grinevetsky clearly describes and structures problems, and so-
They offer their solutions, justifying calculations, if necessary.
In terms of restoring and increasing the supply of fuel and raw materials, the scientist justifies the need for centralized electrification of the economy by creating district power plants operating on cheap fuel. According to the professor, the implementation of the program for the construction of district thermal and hydraulic power plants may take 6–10 years. Grinevetsky directly connects economic progress with the electrification of the country, reasonably considering, as a heat engineer, the task technically soluble.
At the same time, the professor offers specific solutions: the construction of cheap power plants - Shaturskaya, Nizhny Novgorod, Volkhov, Zemo-Avchalskaya, Svirskaya, etc. These provisions become the basis of the GOELRO electrification plan, and all the proposed power plants are built.
In terms of transport development, Grinevetsky considers the lack of accurate capacity of existing railways as the main problem and offers a techno-logical method for solving this problem - superhighway. In fact, it is obvious that superhighways should have the greatest capacity and carrying capacity, have two or more tracks, a light profile and a strong upper construction, a strong development and equipment of stations, and to a large extent the transit nature of mass movement of goods 31. The implementation of the program makes super-magic shooting the most important, the leading link in transport development planning, it is included both in the GOELRO plan and in the subsequent five-year development plans of the country.
At the same time, Grinevetsky proposes to implement the idea proposed earlier by Russian engineers and statesmen to build a direct railway from Siberia to Turkistan (Turksib), as well as a system of canals connecting river basins with each other. Turksib and canals are built.
In terms of technological development of the economy, Grinevetsky, as a professional engineer, is well aware of the insufficiently high level of technological development of domestic industry. To solve this problem, the scientist notes:
"1) The material and technical organization of our industry in the past...
It was very backward in the specialization of production.
2) The future will require decisive specialization in production,
Widespread implementation of the principles of mass fabrication and normalization.
3) Enterprises that do not meet these increased requirements cannot be restored ... improvement of the material and technical organization of the Russian industry is assumed as a necessary condition for its restoration and development.
26
CRYSTAL GROWTH Chapter 2. The original intention
4) Administrative and technical organization of our industry is not used
It is a broad form of industry unification.
5) The future will require a close union of industrial groups. 6 The basic condition must be to increase the number, quality and training of service personnel in the very process of organizing the business and with the help of professional schools at all levels. "
Discussing the territorial planning of industrial locations, Grinevetsky writes: “Perhaps the most dramatic changes must occur in industrial geography, in the territorial distribution of production. The main change will have to be a substantial eastward shift of industry and of the national economy’s centre of gravity” 32.
These proposals become the key principles of the first and second five-year plan, which consist in the reconstruction of industry, the development of the specialization of production, the unification of industrial groups - the creation of combines, significant relocation and development of production forces in the east of the country.
Speaking about the problem of low labor productivity, "in what respect Russia in the past was very inferior to the West" 33, The scientist cites in his book the actual data of comparison of the Russian economy with the leading economies of Europe for the period from 1894 by 1913 year*.
States
England France Italy Germany Austria - Hungary Russia
Income in rubles for one soul
Growth
1894
1913
in rubles
273 233 104 184 127 67
463 355 230 292 227 101
190 122 126 106 100 34
in %
70 52 121 58 79 50
Table 1. Comparison of per capita income growth in Russia and in European countries in the period 1894–1913 years34
Grinevetsky comments on this table: "From this tablet is seen the fact not only of our greatest poverty, but also of the smallest absolute and even relative increase in income; in these respects Russia does not so much catch up as lags behind the countries of the West, and even economically less developed, like Italy and Austria-Hungary" 35.
* Comparative data on the level and dynamics of income in Russia per capita in 1913
For the year 1861, see Table 23 (Annex 5).
27
In this regard, the scientist emphasizes that improving the quality and increasing productivity of labor "should become a national task that lies equally in the interests of the working class, industry itself and the entire state, as the most powerful means for protecting industry against foreign competition. The need to improve quality acutely sets the task of general cultural and special training of workers 36.
The director of the Moscow Higher Technical School (MVTU), a supporter of litechnic education and specialization, he is sure that education is an important link in the chain of industrial production. It is the link, not the isolated factor, that education is an integral part of the entire mechanism of development, including the formation and dissemination of culture, meanings and values. Grinevetsky justifies the creation of lower- and middle-level educational institutions for workers and administrative and technical personnel, the improvement of technical universities. These proposals are being implemented.
In general, an outstanding Russian scientist gives a practical example of a systematic approach to the organization of economic development, lays down a culture of planning thinking, shows the importance of understanding the history of the economy for the correct purpose and determining the prospects for development.
At the same time, Grinevetsky performs the initial part of practical work on the co-setting of plans, which is being implemented in the future. Its developments directly form the basis of the work on the drafting of the electrification plan (GOELRO) and subsequent five-year economic development plans.
In conclusion, it is important to note the deep, strong faith of Vasily Ignatievich Grine-vetsky in Russia. Belief in the prospects for its development, which he writes about in 1918 - in the conditions of the Civil War, the occupation of a significant part of the territory of the country and economic ruin.
Objectively, as a scientist, he deeply and professionally understands the previously accumulated and military devastation behind the Russian economy from the economies of the West. Nevertheless, Vasily Ignatievich emphasizes the "relatively easy rectification of many defects of our economy, which are not so much organic as historical."
He writes and literally emphasizes the following: “Our future, no matter how difficult the immediate political conditions are, still remains in our hands. But in order to realize favorable opportunities, much more intensive work is needed, more creativity in the field of industry and entrepreneurship is needed, but more social efficiency and energy are needed, a firm faith in national forces, which we lacked in the past, but which will strengthen as we achieve success on the difficult path of Russia’s revival and restoration of industry 37.
Obviously, we are talking about the value, worldview foundations of successful economic development, their fundamental and simultaneously applied importance for the practical organization of an effective economic system.
28
CRYSTAL GROWTH Chapter 2. The original intention
Conclusions. In their works, Karl Ballod and Vasily Ignatievich Grinevetsky form a semantic grain - quite universal approaches (principles) of the operant development of the economy. Practice shows that they pass the historical test of time and today are implemented in one way or another, in one form or another. 1. Targeted organized development of the economy according to plan. Today, this principle is implemented in the form of "May Decrees" of the Head of State, a single plan for achieving national goals, national projects, state programs, federal target programs and other documents of state strategic planning.
2. Development of natural productive forces. Today, this principle is implemented in the form of various measures and measures for the implementation of geological exploration in the interests of various sectors of the economy and economic entities.
3. Pre-construction of infrastructure. Today, this principle is implemented in the form of a comprehensive plan for the modernization and expansion of the main infrastructure, as well as a national road development project.
4. Centralized electrification. An analogue of the implementation of this principle today is the digitalization of all spheres of economy and life organized by the state.
5. Association of industrial groups. This principle is being implemented today
in the form of clusters and ecosystems.
6. Introduction of advanced technologies and technology, close integration of education and economy. Today, this principle is implemented in the form of the implementation of end-to-end technologies, the best and affordable technologies organized by the state, as well as national projects and state programs for the development of science, education, and support for technological initiative.
7. Increased productivity. This principle is being implemented today
in the form of a national project to increase productivity.
8. Entrepreneurial initiative, attraction of investments. Today, this principle is implemented in the form of a national project "Small and medium-sized enterprises and support for individual entrepreneurial initiative", a set of measures to transform the business climate, as well as the Government's Action Plan to accelerate the growth rate of investment in fixed assets and increase the 25 percent of their share in GDP, in the work of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). 9. Import substitution. Today, this principle is implemented in the form of industry
import substitution plans.
10. Development of agriculture. Today, this principle is implemented in the form of state programs for the development of agriculture and rural areas, the creation of large farms (agricultural holdings) in the agricultural sector with the simultaneous development of farming and personal household farms.
In this case, along with the correct principles (approaches) to the advance development
The economy is crucial:
29
CHRIST LL GROWTH
mechanisms for the practical implementation of these approaches, their thoughtfulness,
The quality and quality of implementation;
- motivation of people to economic creativity and social efficiency; - energy of development and its purposeful accumulation; - firm faith in national forces, its strengthening and cultivation; - integrity ("satisfaction") of the implementation of these approaches as a single, indivisible
system (“grain”) of economic development.
One doesn't work without the other. All this further.
Chapter 3. PLANNING
For which of you, wishing to build a tower, will not sit down first and calculate the cost, does he have what it takes to accomplish it, so that when he lays the foundation and cannot accomplish it, all the seers will not laugh at him, saying, "This man began to build and could not finish?"
Onion,14:28–30
The emergence of state strategic planning begins with the emergence of the state itself.
Academician N. M. Amosov
3.1. Birth
The initial elements (growths) of state planning are the formation of the budget and taxes, the development of certain industries, the development of territories, the creation of trade regimes. The first actors in such planning are heads of state and authorities, and the first results are usually certain transformations and programs.
In Russia, the most pronounced and systematic elements of state planning management have been formed since the middle of the XIX century in the field of railway construction and public finance.
26 January 1857 Decree of the Head of State "On the construction of the first network of railway roads in Russia", in accordance with which it is planned to 10 years to build 4000 Kilometres of Railway 38. 23 April 1866 approved the plan for the development of "self-necessary" railways with a total length of 7171 Kilometers V 1891 the implementation of a large-scale state plan for the construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway 39. V August 1897 The construction of the China-Eastern Railway (CEC) begins. V 1899 the Head of State approves the organization of central institutions of the Ministry of Railways 40. For 70 The State Railway Construction Program (up to 1917 Year built in Russia 71 Thousands of miles of railroads. For the following 70 Years of economic development are built on 15 Thousands of miles of roads 41. The record rate of construction of the period 1895–99 Mt. - by 2930 km of railways per year - and remain unsurpassed 42.
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22 May 1862 Rules of preparation, execution and conclusion of financial estimates of ministries and chief offices come into force. In fact, these Rules, as well as the documents adopted in their development, lay the foundations for state budget planning. Since 1863, the budget begins to represent a relatively complete picture of public spending and income. In the 1860-ies formed the Institute of regional budget planning at the level of the provinces and counties. Further, there is a constant development and improvement of the system of state budget planning, which reaches the highest level by the beginning of the First World War. The system is characterized by a clear and consistent planning and reporting work 43. In 1899, the Minister of Finance S. J. Witte sends his memorandum to the Head of State ("Vitte memorandum"), the central idea of which is to justify the need to plan the development of the domestic economy.
Systemic transformations p. A. The stolypin, which began in 1906 year and are covered by 20 This includes a number of structural reforms. The active organizing role of the state becomes the basis for their implementation. In formulating the methodological principles of the reforms, p. A. Stolypin points to the primacy of a clear and clear organization of public thinking: "To link all individual government proposals with one common thought, the idea of finding out and putting it at the basis of all construction and protecting it, since it manifests itself in this or that bill." 44. That is, the cultivated way of public thinking determines the dominant way of practical implementation of state activity.
The motto of Stolypin’s concept of transformation of state administration becomes: “Unified understanding of the plan of reforms and unified will in their implementation” 45. The development of public administration and self-government institutions, including the development of the court and law enforcement agencies, the modernization of local government and self-government, creates a single and coherent system of state organization from top to bottom.
The core of economic transformation p. A. Stolypin is an agrarian reformer. The result is a change in the structure in the countryside, the transformation of the community in its former form, the development of credit and credit cooperation of individual peasant farms, the state-organized resettlement of peasants to the east of the country - beyond the Urals. At the same time, the horizons for planning transformations are very large: peasant farms are credited for a period of more than one year 50 years, giving the opportunity to the farms to get back on their feet, quickly move to a new quality, with the stretching of the loan payments for 2–3 Generations. In addition to the organization of financing, the state organizes land use and land ownership, including training on the initiative of the Government 6500 Professional Land Surveyors 46. In addition, the state organizes the development of infrastructure: the construction of railways, highways and railways, seaports and commercial harbors, elevators, warehouses, agricultural and agricultural enterprises
32
CRYSTAL GROWTH of Lodyl Installations, Development of Communication Facilities. As a result, the length of the railways during 1909–1912 Mt. increases in 5,8 % 47.
P. A. Stolypin’s reforms are a striking example of systematic state action to organise the country’s development, undertaken during the very difficult period following the revolution of 1905, yet yielding an almost twofold increase in the rate of economic growth.
In general, as the socio-economic system itself becomes more complex, as well as the challenges and tasks it faces, the need for organized state planning increases.
It receives a powerful impetus on the eve and during the First World War. This comes against the background of global practice, when methods of state planning of the economy are increasingly used in developed countries, when it becomes clear that the course of hostilities will depend on the level and quality of the organizing role of the state, the development of industry and the state of transport.
On 17 February 1913, the “Regulations on the Preparatory Period for War…” were adopted.
ode", which includes a set of measures to prepare the country for military action 48.
17 August 1915 Special Defence Conference to be established
years of office and headed by a Minister of War.
A well-known researcher of the Russian economy during the First World War. L. Sidorov calls the Special Meeting "a kind of economic headquarters that regulates the entire economic life of the country" 49. A special meeting manages 4872 plants, which employs 1935 thousand workers 50. Thus, a state management mechanism covering 2 million people is being created.
In addition to the Special Defence Conference, several other such
Management structures, namely:
Special Meeting on Transportation; Special Meeting on Fuel; Special Meeting on Food. Each of these meetings shall be chaired by the
Ministers: routes of communication, trade and industry, agriculture.
A special meeting on defense solves the issue of planning, centralizing the management of the economy by actively influencing its development. There is a hierarchical structure of executive and supervisory bodies, which include authorized chairpersons, special committees, district and factory meetings, as well as various commissions. "With all the completeness of the executive power, the minister, when solving the most important issues of state defense, was obliged to get acquainted with the opinion of other members of the Special Conference, <...>, if we use modern management terminology, then we can talk about the folding of the functional management structure" 51.
The special defence meeting shall have the following main functions:
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Chapter 3. Planning - organization of activities of all government and private industrial enterprises, arsenals and workshops involved in the supply of the army and navy;
- organization of creation of new enterprises of the defense industry; - distribution of military orders between domestic and foreign companies;
and panics;
— control over the execution of orders of the military department. A vivid illustration of the effective solution of the most important tasks is the activities of the Organization of the authorized Main Artillery Directorate for the procurement of shells under the leadership of Major General S. N. Vankova. By the end of the year 1914, the need for 3-inch artillery shells increases from 1,5 million to 3 million pieces. General Vankov develops the production of shells on the basis of private companies by organizing the merger of plants and changing their specialization 52.
As a result, "in June 1915 St Petersburg. — June 1917 The Van Cove Company was established 16 million 3-inches, 700 thousands. 6Inches and above 1 million shells and bombs of other calibers, which allowed to overcome the crisis in the supply of ammunition to the main part of the Russian artillery, which was outlined in the autumn 1914 Mr.". 53
A special meeting ensures the advanced development of industry, which increases the output of necessary products at a high rate. the Tula Arms Plant September 1914 the Year 2,5 Increases the production of machine guns. Total, period 1914–1916 the Russian Army State Plants 26743 The machine gun that 2/3 Covers the needs of the U.S., insufficiently standing machine guns are purchased with the participation of the Special Meeting from the Allies (1128 and in the United States (9437 p. The production of weapons is growing rapidly: c 2106 in 1915 the Year 5135 — in 1916- Mm-hmm. New types of weapons are being developed and launched as soon as possible. For example, trench guns and bombs. By the end of the war, the army was armed 14 Thousands of bombs (twice the requirement) Up to 1 June 1917 the U S 11446 Flamethrowers, of which only 1 % (136 c) Foreign production 54.
A number of researchers note the extremely positive contribution of the Special Defense Conference to the development of industrial production in Russia. The famous British scientist P. Gatrell, a recognized expert on the history of our country, notes: "During the war, there was not only quantitative, but also qualitative growth of industry. Enterprises were equipped with modern machines, new technologies were mastered, and the streamlined organization of production spread. New branches of industry have been developed - communications, aviation, automotive and chemical; the production of weapons has made a qualitative leap 55.
V December 1917 the Special Defense Meeting is transformed into the Meeting on Financing Enterprises and is transferred to the Supreme Council of the National Economy (SCND) 56.
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CRYSTAL GROWTH 3.2. Natural productive forces (KEPS)
In 1915 in Russia created the Commission for the study of natural production.
Forces of Russia (KEPS) *.
KEPS is created by the efforts of the outstanding Russian scientist Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky, who heads the Commission with breaks until 1930.
With the beginning of the First World War, the country faces an acute problem of dependence on supplies from Germany. Hundreds of thousands of tons of gypsum, clay, chalk, refractories, kaolin, sulfur kolchedan, phosphoric materials, etc. are imported into Russia. The Germans are in Russia 100 % chemical plants, about 90 % The electrical industry, more 50 % Metallurgical and metal-processing plants, etc. V 1915 in the article "War on and Progress of Science" B. I. Vernadsky notes that our economic dependence on Germany is perfect but unacceptable.
Academician Vernadsky states that "only 31 from 61 The chemical element required for the economy is mined and produced in Russia 57. The government does not have accurate data on the strategic raw materials necessary for the production of weapons, including vol-frame, molybdenum, sulfur cobbled, sulfur, lead, salt-three, etc. The scientist raises the question of the need for scientific research and the subsequent use of the country’s own natural productive forces 58.
According to B. I. Vernadsky, under natural production-
The driving force is understood:
- forces associated with the works of living nature - soil fertility, forest wealth, wildlife, vegetation products, fish wealth, etc.;
- a variety of energy sources - the forces of waterfalls, rivers, wind, natural gases, sea tides and tides and other manifestations of dynamic processes on the surface of the earth;
Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky (28 Fev - ral12 March] 1863 Russia, St. Petersburg — 6 January 1945, Moscow) - an outstanding scientist-naturalist, thinker and public figure. Graduated from the Natural Department of Physics and Mathematics of St. Petersburg University. 1898–1911 Professor of Moscow University. C 1912 Academician of the St. Petersburg Academy of Sciences. Creator and Leader (before 1939 c) The Radiation Institute. Summer 1940 At the initiative of the scientist, research on nuclear energy begins. B. I. Vernadsky 473 Laureate of the Order of St. Stanis-lava II degree, St. Anna III Grade, St. Anne II degree, Labor Red Banner59
* This institute has been continuously working in Russia for more than 100 years and today carries out its activities in the form of a structural unit for the placement of productive forces and regional economy of the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia.
35
Chapter 3. Planning - natural resources concentrated in the subsoil, ores of metals and me-talloids, combustible gases, mineral springs, oil, coals, underground water, etc. 60.
21 January 1915 at the meeting of the Physical and Mathematical Department of the St. Petersburg Academy of Sciences I. Vernadsky makes a statement about the necessity of the organization of the Commission for the Study of the Natural Productive Forces of Russia (KEPS), which states: "[At such times] the Academy of Sciences should not remain in the country not from the movement that has now swept over and affected all the institutions of our Motherland - and its aspirations, like all others, are directed towards the same goal - the development and maintenance of the power and might of Russia, necessary for the time as possible 61. The statement is signed by the academicians of N. I. Andrusov, B. B. Golitsyn, A. P. Karpinsky and N. C. Kurnakov.
11 October 1915 is the first extended meeting of KEPS. Among the 56 participants of the meeting are academicians, representatives of ministries, departments, industrial enterprises and scientific institutions. The task of KEPS is not only to prepare a complete database on Russia's natural productive forces, but also to organize research on the development of technologies for their effective extraction, processing, careful and rational use. To achieve this goal, the members of the commission propose to create a whole network of research institutes.
In 1916 The Academy of Sciences publishes 13 works included in the series "Materials for the Teaching of the Natural Productive Forces of Russia". They include: accounting for the forces of white coal (energy of rivers, waterfalls, etc.) and indications for their use; review of fossil resources: ores of metals, combustibles (oil, coal, peat, gas), precious stones, salts; review of useful species of flora and fauna; review of chemical industries based on the use of living resources and fossil raw materials.
Practical work on the development of sectors of the economy begins. V May 1916 In the same year, KEPS raised the issue of banning the mass export of platinum ore abroad. The process of creating a domestic platinum industry with the organization of scientific research in the field of production and processing of platinum ore is being launched. Academician Vernadsky says: "Preservation of these platinum residues to the extent possible in Russia, their separation by the forces of Russian chemists and their export from Russia abroad in the form of a botanical should be the task of the nearest state policy." 62.
By 1917, the number of KEPS is 139 specialists. The entire color of Russian science is presented in the Commission: D. N. Anuchin, L. C. Berg, B. B. Golitsyn, N. D. Zelinski, V. N. Ipatiev, A. P. Karpinsky, N. C. Kurnakov, V. A. Obruchev, S. F. Oldenburg, A. P. Pavlov, I. P. Pavlov, D. N. Pryanishnikov, V. N. Sukachev, E. C. Fedorov, A. E. Fer-sman, W. Mr. Chlopin, N. A. Kholodkovsky, A. E. Chichibabin, D. I. Scherbakov and many other scientists.
36
KEPS includes representatives of the main scientific and scientific-technical societies of Russia: the Russian Geographical, Free Economic, Mineralogical Society, the Moscow Society of Nature Testers, the Moscow Society of Natural Science, Anthropology and Ethnography, the Petrograd Society of Natural Scientists, the Russian Technical, and the Moscow Society for Promoting the Success of Experimental Sciences. H. C. Ledentsova, Russian Physical and Chemical Society.
Members of KEPS are employees of the Government, five ministries: finance, trade and industry, communications, maritime, public education, as well as the Central Military Industrial Committee, the General Administration of Land Management and Agriculture 63.
By the end of 1917, the role of KEPS is significantly increasing, and its work is intensive. The Commission supervises the activities of a number of institutes and scientific departments:
— Institute of Physical and Chemical Analysis; - Platinum Institute; - Department of Non-metallic Fossils and Precious Stone; - Department of Stone and Building Materials; - Department of Clay Materials; - Department of Energy. “In the future, a number of departments of KEPS, in the process of its work, transformed into institutions. For example, the radium department of 1918 It was transformed into a radium institute. the Department of Opto - Technology 1919 It has developed into an independent institute and is preparing the conditions for the possible production of complex optical devices 64. V April 1918 year - against the background of the Civil War, occupation of a significant part of the country's territories, economic ruin, the "Sketch of the plan of scientific and technical works" is published 65. It proposes a number of measures for drawing up a plan for the reorganization of industry and the economic rise of the country: “The Academy of Sciences, which has begun a systematic study and examination of the natural productive forces of Russia, should immediately be instructed by the Supreme Council of the National Economy to form a number of commissions of specialists for drawing up a plan for the reorganization of industry and the economic recovery of Russia as quickly as possible. This plan should include: rational distribution of industry in Russia in terms of the proximity of raw materials and the possibility of the least loss of labor during the transition from processing of raw materials to all successive stages of processing semi-finished products up to obtaining the finished product. Rational, from the point of view of the newest largest industry and especially trusts, the merger and concentration of production in the few largest enterprises. The greatest provision ... the ability to independently provide themselves with all the most important types of raw materials and industry. Focus on the electrification of industry and transport and the application of electricity to land. Use of non-first-class fuels (peat, coal of the worst grades)
37
Chapter 3. Planning for electric power generation with the lowest cost of production and transportation of fuel. Water forces and wind engines in general and in application to agriculture. V 20In recent years, KEPS activities have become even more extensive. Conducted 40–50 expeditions per year. In parallel, scientific works on the natural wealth of our country and their rational development and use are published. A number of independent research institutes are being established on the basis of KEPS. "For the rhode with 1918 by 1930 G was created 14 Research Institutes, 3 Labo-Ratorii and Museum. Thus, the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Soil Institute, appeared. B. B. Dokuchaeva, Hydrological Institute and many others66.
KEPS operates until 1930. The Commission is the first organization in the world to systematically organize a systematic and comprehensive study of natural productive forces throughout the country. The Commission ' s materials are used directly in planning. KEPS plays a key role in the research and development of productive forces - the basis of state planning and organization of economic development.
2 October 1930 during the reorganization of the Academy of Sciences KEPS is reorganized into the Council for the Study of Productive Forces (SOPS), which becomes a successor of KEPS and continues to work on the study of the country's productive forces. A vivid illustration of the large-scale project of the development of natural productive forces of this time is the creation of a single deep-water system of the European part of Russia, as a result of which a whole network of deep-sea channels is created, and Moscow becomes a port of five seas.
SOPS organizes research aimed at studying the natural resource potential for advanced economic development, preparing and implementing plans for the pre-war five-year plans, creating a base for mobilizing resources of the eastern regions for the needs of the national economy in the Great Patriotic War, as well as post-war recovery and economic development.
In the post-war years, a vivid example of the further improvement and transition of the system of development of natural productive forces into a fundamentally new quality is the organization of an unprecedented project of scientific improvement of soils in the vast territory of our country. The basis of the project is the doctrine of the herb crop system, developed by outstanding Russian scientists-agriculturalists V. B. Inquiring, P. A. Kostychev and V. R. Williams.
20 October 1948 Decision No 3960 "On the plan of field-protective plantations, the introduction of grassland crop rotations, the construction of ponds and reservoirs to ensure high and sustainable yields in steppe and forest-steppe regions of the European part of the world <Countries>". The Agrolesproject Institute is being created specifically for the implementation of this project.
Later this program is called the "Plan for the transformation of nature", in accordance with which it is necessary to 1949–1965 years to create eight large forest state strips in steppe and forest-steppe areas with a total length of more than
38
CRYSTAL GROWTH 5 320 km and total area of the forest 4 million hectares and introduce a new herb system.
The goal of the project is to change the microclimate of the fields "by selecting the optimal ratio of arable land, meadows, forests and water... To resist drought can only be withholding moisture in the soil <by> Snow and the creation of a pond. In the open fields, despite all efforts at snow retention, 50–80 % The water is flowing into the beams and ravines. In the protected forests — 80 % The moisture is absorbed into the soil. Hence the unity of the forest and the field and the need for a unified management of them. According to the plan, the plow was decided to be divided into rectangular arrays, limited by forest bands wide from the 6 to 200 m. At the same time, they also play the role of protection against erosion 67. As a result of the project, which has no analogues in the world, it is planned to transform the microclimate of the fields on the territory of the 120 million hectares (more 10 % of modern Europe). We are talking about the southern steppe regions of the country (the Volga region, Western Kazakhstan, the North Caucasus, Ukraine), where dry winds and regular droughts prevent effective agriculture.
Under the new herbopolis system, part of the arable land is sown with perennial bean plants and broom grasses, which are the fodder base for livestock farming, and also naturally restore soil fertility. In addition, the created forest and water bodies diversify the local flora and fauna. Thus, the program is rightfully called the plan for the transformation of nature, combining the tasks of obtaining high sustainable harvests and environmental protection.
K 1953 the Year of the Project 2,3 million hectares of forest, started outside of the new herbage system, created 4000 artificial reservoirs, which allows to significantly improve the environment, build an extensive network of waterways, improve the flow of many rivers, get a large amount of cheap electricity, use the accumulated water for irrigation of gardens and fields. The implemented measures lead to an increase in grain yield 25–30 %, Vegetables - on 50–75 %, Grass - on 100–200 %.
Today, the approaches laid down in the Nature Transformation Program are used in the United States, China, Africa and Western Europe. These are “green ecological frameworks that are created in connection with the predicted global warming” 68.
Since 1960, SOPS has been transferred to the system of the State Planning Committee (State Plan) with the status of the head organization in territorial and economic research, develops general schemes for the development and deployment of productive forces and related sectoral and regional schemes for organizing the economy.
Conclusions. Thus, a purposeful study of natural productive forces organized by the state becomes a basic element of state planning and advanced economic development. An important principle of the organization of the economy is adopted - the advanced study and development of natural productive forces.
39
Chapter 3. Planning 3.3. Electrification (GOELRO)
At the beginning of the twentieth century, Russia’s school of electrical engineering is one of the best in the world. Its work is organised by the electrical engineering department of the Russian Technical Society and by the all-Russian electrical engineering congresses. Seven congresses take place between 1900 and 1913, addressing both technical and strategic issues in the energy sector. One initial strategic question is where thermal power stations should best be built: directly in industrial regions, with fuel transported to them, or at the sites where raw materials are extracted, with electricity then transmitted along power lines. Most Russian scientists and electrical engineers favour the second option, chiefly because central Russia has enormous reserves of lignite and especially peat, which is unsuitable for transport and practically unused as fuel 69.
Since 1916, "fundamental and applied research on energy problems in the interests of Russia's industrialization was initiated by KEPS. Systematic research in this area is carried out by the Energy Department of KEPS 70, organized in 1916, which creates a knowledge base on natural productive forces in the energy sector - the basis for the development and implementation of an electrification plan.
21 February 1920 The State Commission for the Electrification of Russia (GOELRO) is formed. The resolution on the establishment of GOELRO is motivated as follows: "For the first time in Russia it is possible to start more systematic economic construction, to scientific development and consistent implementation of the state plan of the entire national economy. Prini- May considering the primary importance of electrification in the use of the main natural energy reserves available within Russia in enormous quantities in the form of deposits of various fuels and in water forces; taking into account all the advantages of concentrating the production of sea energy in district electric power plants, standing at these primary sources of natural energy and able to distribute such power transmission network in a more perfect way throughout the country; assessing the value of electricity
Gleb Maximilianovich Krzhizhanovsky (1872 Russia, Samara — 1959 Mo-squa) - an outstanding statesman, academician, energy scientist, eco-nomist. V 1894 He graduated with honors from the St. Petersburg Institute of Technology. V 1912 organizes and becomes the head of the first in Russia electric trotsentraly peat "Electrotranslation". V 1918 Head of the Committee of State Constructions of the Supreme Economic Council and the Main Directorate of the Electrical Industry. V 1920 Chairman of the State Commission for the Electrification of Russia (GOELRO). V 1921– 1930 First Chairman of the Gosplan. Under his leadership, he is developing 5The first five-year plan and the first five-year plan. Member of the Editorial Board of the Grand Encyclopedia, Vice-President of the Academy of Sciences, organizer and manager of the Energy Institute. V 1957 Mr. Krzhizhanovsky was awarded the title of Hero of Labor71
40
CRYSTAL GROWTH is a fiction for industry, agriculture, transport and the satisfaction of the cultural needs of the population, especially the possibility for the masses of the peasantry to use the lighting and power wires of electrical energy to meet their basic needs and thereby achieve a powerful shift in the introduction of the village to the cultural benefits of the city and the rise of peasant agriculture and peasant subsidiary industries 72.
The Commission is composed of 19 man. Gleb Commission
Maximilianovich Krzhizhanovsky.
In addition, more than 200 best specialists are constantly involved in the work of the Commission, including outstanding domestic energy: Mr. Aleksandrov, A. B. Winter, R. Uh. Klasson, T. R. Ma-carov, W. F. Mitkiewicz, N. K. Polivanov, P. A. Florensky73 and others. In 1920 Professor Karl Ballod is invited to Moscow for
Advising and participating in the development of plan 74.
The developers of the GOELRO plan are based on KEPS research. According to the Commission, KEPS compiles an overview of the Russian Water Force, which pays special attention to assessing the performance of hydropower resources of individual rivers 75. In addition, GOELRO uses the results of KEPS research in the field of natural resources and attracts KEPS for special tasks.
Figure 10. Pavel Florensky, a famous priest, philosopher and electrical scientist, at the meeting of the GOELRO commission in cass 73
22 December 1920 approves electrification plan, which includes
672 pages of text and a large number of schemes and graphs.
The concept of the GOELRO plan is a holistic organization of economic development
Energy, the main link in the development of which is electrification.
The plan provides for a single, holistic development of energy, combining the production, transmission, distribution and use of electrical, thermal energy and energy resources. The opportunities for the extraction of energy resources are revealed and the principle of organizing the interconnection of all elements of the energy economy is implemented, and on this basis, the balance of production and consumption of various types of energy is optimized.
The GOELRO plan is not only a plan for electrification, but also the world’s first plan for organizing the integrated development of the economy. In the introductory part of the plan, it is decreed: “To draw up a project for the electrification of Russia means to give a red guiding thread for all creative economic activity, to build the main forests for the implementation of a single state plan of the national economy” 76.
The document is a single, holistic program for the revival and development of electricity and specific industries, primarily heavy industry, construction, transport and agriculture. On the importance of large-scale infrastructure projects for the recovery and development of the country's economy write and support
41
Chapter 3. Planning Fig. 11. Discussion of the electrification plan by members of the GOELRO Commission. Left to right: K. A. Krug, H. M. Krzyzanowski, B. I. Ugrimov, R. A. Ferman, N. I. Vashkov, M. A. Smirnov
Foreign experts. In particular, the German specialist Respond notes: “The only means for eliminating the economic ruin of Russia is precisely the implementation of such large projects of hydroelectric power stations and the construction of large power electric centers” 77.
The GOELRO plan is based on the implementation of the most important idea in the system of state planning - the interconnection of the development of various sectors of the national economy in time and space to obtain the maximum integral result in the shortest possible time and with minimal costs.
The structure of the plan speaks of an integrated approach: electrification is carried out in conjunction with the development of the economy as a whole and specific industries: fuel supply, water energy, agriculture, transport and industry.
Linking the construction of power plants with the production and consumption of electricity is essentially a fuel and energy balance. The plan is designed for ten and fifteen years with a clear adherence to the terms of specific work, it determines the trends, structure and proportions of development not only for individual industries, but also for each territory.
Enterprises for the production of electricity are built on the territories in accordance with the distribution of natural productive forces, which is based on KEPS data on natural productive forces in terms of electricity sources - water resources and minerals (coal, peat, etc.). Where resources allow, mixed-type power plants are being built. “Our electric centers were supposed to open and combine in <national economy> the energy that has been accumulating for centuries in the forests of the north, and in the peat bogs of the north and the center had to put into use bad grades of local coal and waste coal developments, and Volga.
42
CRYSTAL GROWTH shales, and oil gases, and water energy of rivers and streams of the north, south, east and west" 78. The distribution is shown in Figure 12.
The plan is aimed at increasing efficiency and increasing the productivity of labor through rationalization and intensification of production, replacing the muscular efforts of people and animals with electric energy. All three basic elements of productivity are closely related to the success of electrification: tension, broad mechanization, and general ordering 79.
An important organizational decision is that the plan is put into effect in the legislative order. Its practical implementation is ensured by the economic management and approval of short-term plans, which are mandatory for implementation and are of a policy nature. A private initiative in the implementation of the plan is encouraged by providing tax incentives and loans from the state.
Figure 12. Distribution of power plants by type of power sources
In 1920, the renowned science-fiction writer H. G. Wells visits Russia. He learns about the electrification plans and considers them unfeasible. In his essay Russia in the Shadows, he comments on the GOELRO plan as follows: “Can one imagine a more audacious project in this vast, flat, forest-covered country, populated by illiterate peasants, deprived of sources of water power, lacking technically skilled people, and with trade and industry almost extinguished? Such electrification projects are now being carried out in Holland and discussed in England, and one can easily imagine that in these densely populated countries with highly developed industry, electri-
43
Chapter 3. Planning Fig. 13. Increase in annual electricity production (million kWh)
Electricity generation per year (million kWh)
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
The trick will be successful, cost-effective and generally beneficial. But the implementation of such projects in Russia can be imagined only with the help of super-fantasy. Whatever magic mirror I look into, I can’t see this Russia of the future.” 80.
By 1926 - for 5 years - the first part of the GOELRO plan was fully implemented - the destroyed energy economy of the country was restored.
1913 1921 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1956
K 1931 year - the minimum ten-year period of the plan - all indicators for energy construction were fulfilled. Instead of planned baths 1,75 million kW of new power plants put into operation 2,56 million kW 81. “The expert commission of the League of Nations at one time compared the progress of electrification in different states during this period and divided them into five groups according to the pace of electrical construction. The first place was reserved exclusively for <our Country>, Dawg 125 %- a lift. In the remaining four cells are located all other nations, the expansion of which was estimated within the limits of 60 to 20 % Lifting" 82. Data on total electricity production in 1913 year in comparison with the period 1921–1931 years are presented in the Annex 5, Table 10.
By the year 1935 - the deadline for the completion of the GOELRO plan - domestic energy production
Third place in the world after the United States and Germany.
In the post-war years, advanced energy development reaches a higher level. K 1947 In the same year, domestic energy ranks first in Europe and second in the world, and in just five years it has become the largest energy producer in the world 1951 by 1955 Power plants almost doubled year by year 19,6 million kW in 1950 M. to 37,2 million kW in 1955 Mr. Thus, in one five-year period, capacities equal to those that were introduced for <throughout the period, starting from 1917 St Petersburg.>" 83.
The created unified energy system on the scale of a large country makes it possible to effectively use reserves of electric power produced in different time zones, which leads to a significant reduction in the cost of electricity. As a result, one of the northernmost countries in the world produces the cheapest electricity. Thanks to this, the COMECON countries are willingly connected to the energy system of our country, which becomes a powerful integration factor, and the export of electricity increases from the current level 0,03 billion kilowatt hours in 1960 the Year 19 billion kilowatt hours in 1980 the Year.
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At the beginning of the implementation of the GOELRO plan, the assistance of foreign companies and specialists is actively used. Advanced equipment is supplied by the American companies General Electric, Newport News, Babcock-Wilcox, the English Me-tropolitan Vickers, the German Ganomag, Siemens, Stein-Merkel.
At the same time, import substitution was developing alongside the practical implementation of the electrification plan. In 1923, the Elektrosila plant produced just its first four hydroelectric generators, each with a capacity of 7.5 MW, for the Volkhov Hydroelectric Power Station. By the mid-30s, large enterprises operating in the country included Elektrozavod (Moscow), Dinamo (Moscow), Krasny Kotelschik (Taganrog) and the S. M. Kirov Turbogenerator Plant (Kharkiv). By 1934, imports in power engineering had fallen by an order of magnitude on average—a factor of 10.
The implementation of the GOELRO plan becomes the world's first successful experience in strategic, program-targeted planning and organization of macroeconomic scale development, as well as the world's first experience in the systematic implementation of the balance method of economic organization.
As a result of the implementation of the GOELRO plan and the subsequent electrification plans, the country's economy is naturally divided into territories - at the same time energy, economic and administrative regions. This principle is precisely formulated by G. M. Krzhizhanovsky: "The electrification map <stru > first of all showed how on an energy basis it was necessary to approach the division of our huge spaces into huge economic units - economic districts, the play of whose forces was to transform the entire scattered system of the former economy into a powerful monolithic <...> organism" 84.
Within the framework of economic areas, one form of economic organization is widely developed - the combination of various industries. In fact, each of the economic regions becomes an organized plant, with a common energy and other infrastructure, organized use of raw materials and various productions related to each other, which allows to significantly increase the efficiency of the economy - more fully use the created energy capacities, the local raw material base, develop and use the common infrastructure, local personnel, improve logistics, reduce transport costs, accelerate production processes, eliminate parallelism. In such a model of economic organization, high economic density is achieved (a “bundle”, a cluster of industries), the effect of territorial concentration and scale is maximally realized.
Logistic, technological and administrative organization of enterprises in the plant is similar to the interaction of the workshops of the plant, and at the heart of its formation is a rational assessment of the balance of resources used by enterprises of the plant. Com-binate becomes a large economic unit, organizing the employment of 10–15 thousand working-age population. There is a qualitative shift from planning for individual enterprises towards the planned development of plants - the organization of the economy of entire economic regions.
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Chapter 3. In fact, the GOELRO plan lays the foundation for the formation of the entire subsequent system of planning and organizing the development of the economy, anticipating the methodology and practice of future five-year plans.
Already in the plan, along with purely practical tasks, the key rules of planning and organizing the economy are reflected. In particular, the GOELRO plan explicitly states:
In any administrative and technical production activity, first of all, we must not forget the three basic rules of success, to which we inevitably lead the practice of the past:
First of all, do not waste time, i.e. do not postpone until tomorrow.
what can be done today, and not lose momentum in the course of the work itself;
Secondly, do not exaggerate your powers, for which first of all knowledge is required.
these forces and the correct assessment of the difficulties of the work to be done;
- thirdly, started to bring to the end, because nothing so disorganizes
It's like a helpless side-to-side throw.
But these three things, if you think about them, tell us only one thing:
Figurative work is possible only when working on a certain plan "85.
These universal rules of planning and organization of the economy
relevant even today.
Conclusions. The electrification plan becomes the next basic element of the model of advanced economic development, which, together with the knowledge base on the natural production forces of the country, sets the foundations for the organization of the development of almost all sectors of the economy.
The implementation of the GOELRO plan creates an energy framework for the entire economy. The power plants themselves become the cores (energy centers) of the development of economic areas, in their orbit the use of the local resource base, related infrastructure, as well as related industries and industries are organized, combined.
System of state planning and advanced economic development
The following are important principles of economic organization.
1. The advance creation of energy infrastructure is a prerequisite for the creation of new industries in various sectors of the economy, which will then consume electricity and use the infrastructure created. First supply, then demand.
2. Balancing and managing resources: a balance sheet assessment of sufficiency and the interlinkages of resources needed to implement the integrated plan.
3. Economic zoning, territorial concentration and combined development of production. Later, such plants will be called territorial-industrial complexes. Today's analogue of such an organization of the economy are clusters.
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CRYSTAL GROWTH 3.4. Organization of planning
22 February 1921 The State Planning Committee (Gosplan) is approved, and June 1921 The GOELRO Commission is abolished. The backbone of its employees forms the personnel base of the Gosplan, and its first chairman is G. M. Krzhizhanovsky. In addition, the first State Planning Commission includes major scientists, including I. T. Alexandrov, V. R. Williams, E. M. Gubkin, D. N. Pryanishnikov, S. Mr. Strumilin, M. A. Chatelin.
V December 1925 The year is decided on the need for national planning. In fact, this makes planning mandatory and gives the State Planning Committee new powers: before that, development plans for individual industries and agriculture were drawn up by various organizations without significant linkages, now planning becomes holistic, connected, organized. V March 1926 The three main directions of the Gosplan’s activity are formulated in the organizational hierarchy: first, the general long-term plan, on its basis - a perspective five-year plan, and then - annual current plans. 30 December 1927 In the State Plan, a Central Commission for a five-year plan is being created under the chairmanship of Gleb Maximilianovich Krzhizhanovsky, which involves and consolidates the best intellectual forces of the country to prepare the plan. His deputies are Stanislav Gustavovich Strumilin and Grigory Fedorovich Grinko. "The five-year plan was: E. Weisberg, who together with Krzhizhanovsky carried out a general revision of theses; B. A. Guhman, who set the balance sheets; Z. L. Mindlin, who worked on national income figures, and B. A. Bazarov, who worked on the use of free labor 86. Grigory Fedorovich Grinko notes: "During the work on the five-year state plan, special conferences were held with the participation of prominent representatives of science and practical experience in metallurgy and engineering, reconstruction of agriculture, reconstruction of transport, chemical industry, forestry, timber, chemical, textile, cooperative construction, reproduction of qualified forces in the country and local economy" 87.
The state plan becomes a strategic management body of the staff type and becomes the head of the organization of economic system development. The industrial structures of Gosplan have two subordinations. In sectoral ministries, planning commissions are created, subordinated simultaneously to the State Planning Committee and the relevant minister. The vertical of the Gosplan is as follows: the central department - republican planning bodies - regional and regional planning structures. As a result, Gosplan fits into the structure of the organization of the economic system, developing plans in cooperation with sectoral ministries, both in Moscow and in the field. Until 1932, in close cooperation with the State Planning Committee, the Supreme Council of the National Economy (SCNH) is working, which implements the primarily territorial principle of managing the economic system (today, from the point of view of the regional principle, there is no such principle).
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Chapter 3. The equivalent of such a body is the State Council). By 1932, the practice of organizing the development of the economy shows that the Supreme Economic Council is obsolete. In connection with the overdue transition to the principle of management of the economic system, the Supreme Economic Council is being liquidated, and sectoral ministries of heavy, light and forest industry are being created instead.
2 February 1938 approves the new Regulations on the Gosplan. It is being developed under the leadership of the Chairman of the State Planning Committee Nikolai Alekseevich Voznesensky and is dictated by qualitative changes in the economy and the need to organize the solution of new tasks, as well as the systematic understanding of the experience of the State Planning Committee accumulated over the previous 18 years.
The main task of the Gosplan is determined by the integral, related organization of the economic system - ensuring in terms of the correct ratios of the development of various sectors of the economy and the necessary measures to prevent imbalances.
The plan, as the Regulations indicate, requires linking the work of related industries, extractive and processing industries, agriculture and industry, transport and the economy as a whole, increasing production and consumption, financing production and its cost-effectiveness, the implementation of optimal location of enterprises and thus the formation of the necessary proportions by area.
The new Regulation significantly expands the strategic, staff, organizational and planning-analytical functions of the single planning center of the country. According to this Gosplan:
- develops and submits to the government for approval national economic perspective, state and quarterly plans;
- monitors the implementation of approved plans; - develops individual problems of development of eco-labels according to the tasks of the Government and its initiative;
Manages statistical accounting. To perform new tasks in the structure of the planned enterprise, an institute of Gosplan commissioners is being created, which organize work at the regional level - "in re-publics, regions and regions". The document notes that “the commissioners are directly subordinated to
Nikolay Alekseevich Voznesensky (18.11(1.12).1903 Tula region, Russia — 1.10.1950 Moscow), an outstanding state and political figure, academician (1943). V 1935–1937 Chairman of the Planning Commission and Deputy Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Leningrad City Council 1937 G. - Deputy Chairman of the Gosplan. Under his leadership, a third five-year plan is being developed (1938–1942) development of the country's economy. V 1938–1941 Mr 1942–1949 Chairman of the Gosplan. During the Great Patriotic War, a member of the GKO, is personally responsible for the production of weapons and ammunition. Directs the development of mobilization, military-economic, quarterly and other plans during the war, as well as plans for the fourth five-year plan (1946–1950). C 1947 Chairman of the Bureau of Metallurgy and Chemistry at the Council of Ministers 1946–1949 Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers88
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CRYSTAL GROWTH Gosplan and work independently of the republican, regional and regional planning commissions. ... Commissioners of the State Planning Commission in the republics, regions and regions are appointed and responded to <Government> on the proposal of the State Planning Commission and work on his assignments "89.
The State Planning Committee performs control functions, solves a wide range of organizational tasks, becoming a link between the enterprises of various sectors of the economy. Commissioners form a feedback channel - report on the real state of affairs on the ground, identify best practices and disseminate them, organize the elimination of violations and shortcomings.
The model of work of the authorized Gosplan today is similar to the work of the project office, when its employees are responsible for monitoring cross-functional tasks, linking project initiatives, and, if necessary, moderating conflicts of departments and solving emerging problems.
10 October 1940 in the structure of the Gosplan 9 territorial departments are created, the consolidated department of district planning and placement of enterprises. The territorial departments shall be responsible for:
a) drawing up comprehensive plans for the development of the national economy;
check of their implementation and control of their implementation;
b) development of measures to eliminate irrational and excessively distant
transportation;
c) control over the rational placement of enterprises by economic areas; d) development of a plan for cooperation of enterprises by economic areas; e) drawing up basic material balances by economic areas 90. Territorial departments rely in their work on the authorized Gosplan and together become the most important organizational complement of the industry planning and management system.
21 March 1941 adopted a new Regulation on the Gosplan, which establishes the accounting and distribution of materials and equipment. New subdivisions reveal unused or partially used equipment and unnecessary raw materials in enterprises, with their subsequent transfer to needy enterprises. On the ground, this work is organized by the authorized Gosplan, which, conducting an inspection of enterprises, identify reserves in the form of unused or partially used equipment. This organization of business provides an optimal use of the basic means of the economic system as a whole, makes it possible to equip new enterprises with underutilized basic means.
V February 1948 In the planning system, the most important organizational innovation takes place - the State Committee for Material and Technical Supply (Gossnab) is created. Its creation is due to the transition to a new level of economic development, its complication, as a result of which the need for greater specialization of management bodies ripens - separation from the headquarters work of the State Planning Committee on organizational development
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Chapter 3. Planning of economic development at the strategic level of the current operational work on the organization of the implementation of logistics plans.
The State Supply Service performs the most important role of organizing the work of the economic system horizontally, practically organizing seamless interaction between enterprises of various sectors of the economy; coordinated, dynamic work of international cooperation chains (from raw materials production to final production) to organize and control the timeliness of supplies.
Thus, over nearly three decades of practical, highly intensive and effective state activity within the planning system, experience gives rise to an effective model: Gosplan organises the strategic development of the economic system vertically, while Gossnab organises its operational work horizontally. Together they form a single organisational matrix for the economic system.
At the same time, the strategic and organizational activities of the Gosplan and Gossnab are clearly separated from the current and supporting activities of the Government apparatus. This rational decision is ripened in order not to reduce the quality of strategic and organizational functions due to their mixing with current, hardware functions. The managerial importance of the work of Gosplan and Gossnab for the effective organization of the entire economic system is evidenced by the fact that the leaders of only these two government bodies are part of the country's top political leadership.
3.5. Equilibrium or Development?
In parallel with the practical beginning of the formation of the national plan of the new system in the 20-ies of the XX century, the main theoretical discussion about the essence of the economic development plan unfolds, during which two fundamentally different concepts are crystallized:
The first defines the plan as a balance; the second defines the plan as a goal. The first comes from the idea of the so-called natural ("genetic") growth of eco-nomination (B. Bazarov, V. Groman, N. Kondratiev et al.). The essence of the plan is defined as a recording balance, which states the current state of the economy and extrapolates to the future existing statistical data on “natural” trends in the development of the economy. Management by purpose is not expected.
The second comes from the idea of targeted (“teleological”) economic growth (G. Krzy-Zhanowski, S. Strumilin, V. Milutin et al.). The essence of the plan is defined as a mechanism for organizing the development of the economy, which practically ensures the achievement of the goals, taking into account a realistic assessment of the available resources, their interconnection with each other and involves an active search (creation, invention)
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CRYSTAL GROWTH practical solutions and working mechanisms for economic development. In this case, the management of the goals is carried out.
Proponents of the concept of natural economic growth point out that in the case of the targeted organization of economic growth management, there is a shift in the economic balance in the direction of increasing supply (production), which causes fears to disrupt the existing equilibrium of the economy (“violate the existing economic mechanisms”). Supporters of “natural” growth during the discussion explain their position with risks, the need to maintain macroeconomic stability, and maintain the balance of economic sectors. As a result, they do not propose the targeting and organization of the development of a new - more advanced economic, structural, technological way, but also support the con- tion of the imperfect (backward) structure of the economy, which, according to supporters of the concept of natural growth, is a necessary condition for stability and balance.
In the course of this discussion, the understanding is crystallized that the reduction of planning only to the solution of the problem of determining the current economic balance and maintaining equilibrium generates only a registration (con-stating) plan - a "game of cypher" (for example, this can be the financial balance of the country - the state budget).
It is concluded that the concept of equilibrium, being the basis of the organization of the economy, disorients decision-makers and is not able to offer measures of advanced economic development.
The essence and consequences of this discussion are formulated most succinctly by Stanislav Gu-stavovich Strumilin: “In fact, no one disputes that in each plan there should be a combination of scientific forecast, targeted directives or, as it is otherwise expressed, genetics and teleology. The debate is only about the relative importance of each of these moments in the planned business. Some argue for the “primacy” of genetics over teleology. There are, finally, those who do not attach any importance to this dispute at all, recognizing it as too academic.
However, in practice, despite the highly abstract setting of the dispute and its strictly philosophical terminology, the problems at issue carry significant practical consequences” 91.
Today, this theoretical discussion continues in Russia, as well as its "little"
important practical implications.”
Interestingly, a similar discussion is taking place not only in Russia, but also in China. Its conclusions are formulated by the Chinese managers as follows: “Any equilibrium is always temporary and conditional, therefore it is relative, but there is no absolute equilibrium.
Of course, it is necessary to maintain a balance between individual branches of the national economy at a certain period of time and on a certain scale.
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Chapter 3. Planning as it requires an objective pattern of proportional economic development, and this is precisely the task of the planned work of the state. The question here is how to achieve balance: either the laggards catch up with the advanced ones, or the advanced ones are attracted to the lagging ones.
It is not the appearance of disequilibrium itself that is terrible, but complete confusion before disequilibrium and the demand in this connection for the equalization of the advanced with the backward; it is terrible that people demand to adjust their foot to shoes and refuse food, fearing hiccups 92.
As a result of the discussion in Russia in 1929–1955, the target concept of preparing a plan and, accordingly, the target model of economic development was adopted, primarily due to three main practical reasons:
- during the discussion, there is a successful practical implementation of the GOELRO plan, which in essence is a clear example of the target concept of planning and in practice proves the possibility and much greater benefit of targeted development;
Estimates of the rate of growth of the economy are consistently wrong in a smaller way compared to its actual growth;
The unfriendly external environment, the threat of war and the difficult state of affairs inside the country require advanced development: setting big goals and developing realistic mechanisms for achieving them.
Stanislav Strumilin (17 (29) January 1877 G., Russia, p. Dashkovtsy, Litynsky district, Podolsk province — 25 Yan - varya 1974 Moscow) - an outstanding statesman, economist, academician, Hero of Labor. V 1914 Graduated from St. Petersburg Polytechnic Institute. V 1921–1937 Gov., 1943–1951 Mr. works in Gosplan: in 30- the years - Deputy Chairman of the State Planning Committee, member of the Presidium, one of the authors of the methods of planning and plans of industry; under his leadership, the world's first system of material balances is developed, the author of the method of building an index of labor productivity ("Strumilin index"), the author of more 700 scientific works
An important role in confirming the practical implementation of the target concept of preparing the plan is played by a series of conferences of the State Planning Committee on the preparation of the first five-year plan. Deputy Chairman of the State Planning Committee Grigory Grinko notes: "Based on these conferences and on the great works of a number of <Ministries>, It was possible to build a sufficiently specific program (with designation of objects, areas and terms) of new construction, as well as a program of reconstruction and rationalization in the re-structuring sectors of the economy, on which all the projected rates of quantitative and qualitative growth are based. From a methodological point of view, this made it possible to break away from the method of extrapolation, which inevitably had to be resorted to at previous stages of perspective planning
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CRYSTAL GROWTH, which led to an underestimation of the possible pace of our development and construction.
It is noteworthy that the "geneticist" Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev deduces the pattern of development of the world economy, expressed in periods of ups and downs and called "Kondratiev Cycles". The duration of one full cycle is between 50 and 60 years. The world economy behaves in the late 1920 according to Kondratieff cycles, many countries are experiencing economic crises, including the Great Depression in the United States.
The economy of our country...
1929
and m o o o t e t s o r e t
Domestic economy World economy
Figure 14. Antiphase of growth of the domestic and world economy
They are developing in opposition to the global economy and achieving phenomenal rates of economic growth.
The reason for these results is the organization of economic development
goals, not the current of the economy.
It is appropriate to add here that, from the point of view of management, the concepts of natural and targeted growth are universal and applicable to almost any object of management. Thus, the practice of corporate governance shows that the strategy of any successful company is an active position of the target development, transformation of the company, its competitive advantages and role in the market, up to the transformation of the market itself. In accordance with the “natural” concept, for example, Samsung and Sony would still trade in rice, since the extrapolation of trends in the rice market, electronics and mechanical engineering “naturally” do not work.
3.6. Planning methodology
Within the framework of the target concept of economic organization, the following are developed:
Key principles of planning methodology.
One. Flexibility and adaptability of planning. The head of state formulates a general approach to planning: “For us, the five-year plan does not represent something completed and forever given. For us, the five-year plan, like any plan, is only a plan adopted in the order of the first approximation, which must be clarified.
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Chapter 3. Planning
Only bureaucrats can think that the planned work ends with the drawing up of a plan. Planning is only the beginning of planning. This planning guidance shall be deployed only after the plan has been drawn up, tested on the ground, implemented, corrected and refined.” 94.
Gleb Maximilianovich Krzhizhanovsky, Chairman of Gosplan, notes: “In one part we turn to reality with the face of an analyst who operates with the tool of economics and mathematics and no muscle in his face will flinch during this operation, in the other part we are a bit of artists and must be artists. We must generalize a little; without mathematical data, but having to do this operation, we must do it because the whole complex process of life does not fit into the laws, and there may be different assumptions 95.
Two. Planar hierarchy, tree of goals. Mr. M. Krzhizhanovsky implements the idea that allows you to clearly organize the entire system of state planning and build a planned hierarchy.
The control figures of the plan become the final balance sheet of the year. The plan, in turn, is part of the five-year plan. It turns out the ori-ginal "planned nesting doll", where small units are organically included in larger ones. The guidelines are valid for both the five-year and annual plans. They are also taken into account for the compilation of control figures.
A goal tree is formed. Planning takes on a final coherence
and slimness.
Organising matters in this way makes it possible to overcome the chaos that prevailed in the planning system in the 20s, when each department drew up its own plans in isolation from the others, each for its own, uncoordinated periods of 2, 3, 5 and 10 years. As a result, the chaotic, disparate plans were not linked in terms of objectives, resources or regions (Fig. 15). The objectives tree and planning hierarchy organise the system, creating order, interconnectedness and coherence in planning (Fig. 16).
Three. Unity and integrity of the organization of the development of the entire economy. The system of state planning itself, starting with the formation of many different plans, takes the form of a single plan.
Four. Meeting needs is the main objective of the economy, and the basic organization of the entire planning system is natural indicators. Monetary indicators are of accounting importance. Tons, liters, kilowatts - a product whose volumes are expressed in natural terms, and not monetary profit or gross income - are the ultimate goal of the production process.
Mr. M. Krzhizhanovsky notes: "...we draw ourselves the whole process of industry - from raw materials to the value of the finished product - <...> in terms of needs. These are basic things: housing, clothing, food, and communications. The basic scheme of industry must first be organized in this way.” 96
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CRYSTAL GROWTH l
k
3
2
1
2
3
i
n
Regions
Industries
s r s s e r
1
2
3
j
m
Figure 15
Figure 16
Fifth. Advances in capital investment. The most important is the idea of c. Mr. Strumilina about the constant ahead of the growth of investment. It is concluded, firstly, that the pace of development of the country should exceed the growth of foreign economies, and secondly, according to Strumilin's calculations, each ruble of additional investment gives more rubles to the average annual growth of products.
The growth of the economy is only possible
with an early increase in investment.
Six. Advanced study and development of natural productive forces. The knowledge base on natural production forces and the best available technologies for their development is the basis for planning and organizing industries. Seven. Preceding the creation of basic infrastructure, primarily energy. The implementation of the GOELRO plan and subsequent electrification plans provide a single energy basis for the advanced development of almost all other sectors of the economy.
Eight. The introduction of advanced technologies and new equipment is permanent
priority of planning and development of the economic system.
Already the first five-year plan provides for a significant increase in the share of tires in industrial and agricultural production, as well as the maximum use of electrification of the country for efficiency growth.
In subsequent plans, the role and importance of this priority is constantly increasing. After the war, they appear as independent plans for the automation of the economy, the introduction of new technology. A State Committee for the introduction of new technology is being created, headed by the Deputy Prime Minister.
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Chapter 3. Planning. Ninth. Efficiency. Continuous growth in labour productivity and cost reduction are mandatory goals in planning and developing the economic system. Resource-use standards are centrally reduced each year, alongside an annual centralised increase in workers’ output quotas.
The plan deliberately creates an imbalance. The amount of resources required to produce a certain volume of output in terms of existing technology maps is deliberately reduced. This requires jewelry precision to make the imbalance manageable, but the results are worth it.
Tenth. An important element of the planning system is the organization of public consumption funds. These funds include social programs, the development of affordable education systems and health care.
3.7. idea of development. Big Goals and Projects
The initial basis for the development of the plan is the idea of development. The factor of leadership, strategic vision and managerial will of decision-makers is important in determining ideas and big development goals.
For example, already in 1923 The country’s leadership notes: “The Gosplan looks at the achievements that can be achieved in the trans-port. I consider this wrong and with such pessimism we will not lead Russia out of ruin. Therefore, the element of faith in one’s own strength is, in my opinion, necessary.” 97. 23 June 1931 The Head of State emphasizes: “Finally, two words about our production plan for the 1931 year. There are some ... people who claim that our production program is unreal, impossible. This is a kind of "wise sandals" Shchedrin, who are always ready to spread around the "emptiness of unthinking." Is our production program real? Absolutely, yes! It is real, if only because we have all the necessary conditions for its implementation. It is real, if only because its fulfillment now depends solely on ourselves, on our ability and our desire to use the richest opportunities available to us. 98
In the context of the stage of development catching up with the world economy (1929–1940), the idea of development is formulated as follows: “We are 50–100 years behind the advanced countries. We have to run that distance in ten years. Either we do it, or we'll be wiped out." 99.
After victory in the Great Patriotic War and the country’s attainment of the status of one of the world’s two superpowers, the guiding idea for development (1946–1955) was essentially the ambition to be the world’s leading state.
Such ideas generate big goals and large-scale development projects.
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In the pre-war period, such projects are electrification and industry of the country. After the war, the country’s restoration and projects to create the latest technologies and new industries — nuclear, rocket and space, radio-electronic.
The scale in which the planning system shapes and organizes the implementation of large projects allows us to create a number of new industries and build about 9000 new plants.
In the initial period of the war to organize transportation to the East as soon as possible
The country has about 3 500 plants and restart their operation.
After the war - by the end of 1947 - to reach the pre-war level of production
in industry.
By the beginning of the 1950s to create the latest sectors of the economy (nuclear, space rocket, electronic) and modernize existing industries. Start practical implementation of the plan for the transformation of nature, projects for the construction of the Trans-polar Railway, transport transition to Sakhalin, etc.
One of the vivid illustrations of the scale of the projects organized in the planning system is the unprecedented domestic project of the world scale - the study and development of the wealth of the world ocean.
The first commercial exploration in our country is organized in Murmansk in 1938 by the decision of the Minister of Food Industry. Thus, a new scientific board is born - commercial exploration 100. In the post-war years, the project is continued by the efforts of the Minister of the fishing industry of the country Alexander Akimovich Ishkov.
Hundreds of Russian scientists, using research vessels, are developing a bioresource map of the world’s oceans from the north to the south poles. They are implementing the concept of studying and developing natural productive forces on a global scale and the idea that the world’s fish stocks and reliable scientific information about them are a strategic resource for development.
Prospective and operational fisheries exploration is followed by the establishment of a fish and seafood programme. Large-scale fishing in the Norse Sea is unfolding in the period from 1947 by 1955 year. The Southern Kurils Region (1956 c.), the Central and Eastern Atlantic (sardine reserves), the Newfoundland Bank (cod and flounder reserves), Alaska, the Aleutian Range, the Vancouver-Oregon region and West Africa (1963 Perch, hake, herring, flounder), Australia and New Zealand, Oceania, Polynesia and Indonesia, the Pacific sector of Antarctica, Ob and Lena cans, Kerguelen Islands, the Argentine and Uruguay shelf (1964–65 The Atlantic Antarctic, South Georgia and the South Orina Islands (1967–68 Gov.) 101.
The task of developing the wealth of the world's oceans is solved comprehensively: catching, processing and delivering products to the place of consumption. “Transport vessels (and trans-port fleets) and sales offices are being created, including <...> for servicing the fleet abroad (agencies, supplies, repairs)” 102.
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Chapter 3. The development of the domestic fishing fleet goes in two directions: large ocean autonomous vessels are being built, engaged in the production and processing of fish, as well as medium-tonnage vessels that serve the base-mothers, which receive and process catch, supply industrial vessels with fuel, products, and provide medical services. A fundamentally new technology is being implemented - the production of canned food in fishing areas, floating processing canneries are being built, for example, "Natalia Kovshova" (1966), "Maria Polivanova" (1966), "Anatoly Khalin" (1967). Fishery bases are being established and are being diverted to distant fishing areas with small fishing vessels on board (e.g. the Vostok fishing base). The fishing industry loads orders not only for domestic shipyards, but also for shipbuilding enterprises in Poland and Germany. As a result, in the early 1970-ies, the volume of fishing and seafood on the basis of
By 1940 year increases by almost 6 times, exceeding 8 million tons per year 103.
3.8. Strategy. Lead
“One must be able to find at each particular moment that special link of the chain, which must be grasped with all one’s strength in order to hold the whole chain and prepare for a solid transition to the next link, and the order of the links, their form, their adhesion, their difference from each other in the historical chain of events is not so simple and not so stupid as in the usual, blacksmith made chain.” 104.
The choice of the leading level is directly related to the need to obtain the best result of the organization of the economic system in conditions of limited resources and at their lowest cost. For each period of economic development, there are leading links. The choice of a leading link in no case means ignoring all other links of the economic chain.
In practice, the leading link can be specific industries, key technologies.
decisive links in the economy.
For example, in the framework of the first - catching up stage of the implementation of the model of economic development (1929–1940 years), the key aspect is the organization of the transition of the economy to a new technological way - industrialization. In these conditions, the leading link is mechanical engineering - the production of means of production, as well as the industries associated with it: metallurgical, metal-fouling, fuel. At the same time, at this stage, a “developing spiral” arises and breaks out, in which the concentration of quality products in the main link simultaneously provides the expansion of the production and technological apparatus of other industries and the economy as a whole, its overall qualitative improvement 105.
In the second - leadership stage of the implementation of the model of advanced development (1946–1955 years) the main link in the development of the economy in the industry sector.
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CRYSTAL GROWTH is developing the creation of new industries: nuclear, rocket, space, radio-electronic throne, and in technological terms - through the introduction of advanced technologies of mechanization and automation of production and the corresponding latest technology in various industries, while strengthening the "developing spiral". In this regard, there are new types of plans - plans for automation and modernization of equipment.
Based on the development goals of the country, the leading level, development strategies are developed from plants, key technologies that are decisive in the development of the economy.
Figure 17. The Deployable Spiral
At this stage of planning, the scale (level) of development in the country is determined.
A strategic perspective.
An industry development strategy should correctly give a major strategic assessment of the development prospects. All the necessary reporting materials characterizing the economy of the industry and the country in detail, the results of scientific, analytical, engineering research, data of best practices are used. In practice, this results in a major study, which includes an assessment of the natural productive forces necessary for the development of each specific industry, long-term trends and current development of this industry in the world as a whole and in the main countries of development of this industry - in particular, key factors of industry success, strategies of leading companies, advanced technologies and organizational processes, optimal production and technological chains, assessment of the necessary supplies, scientific, human resources.
One example of this level was developed in the 50-ies of the industrial sector.
The project is aimed at the development of the electric power industry for the future of 15–20 years, in which:
— an analysis of the current state and trends in the development of energy in the country is given
not abroad;
— in the future, the role of energy development in the creation of material and
technical base of the economy;
— directions of scientific and technical progress in the construction of energy resources are outlined
Gestational capacity;
- Calculates the long-term need for electricity required
for the advanced development of the country's economy;
Evaluate natural productive forces and available sources
electricity;
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Chapter 3. Planning - the scale of construction of new power plants is designed taking into account the available sources of electricity in each specific area and assessing the promising capabilities of design and construction organizations.
3.9. The pace and proportions. Balances 106
Development goals and strategies determine the planned pace of economic development, as well as the time frame in which this should be done. The plan becomes temporary. Real planning of industrial growth rates in general is based on the rates of development of the industries included in the industry: ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, coal and oil industries, power plants and engineering, light and food industries, as well as the main industries that are part of these industries. The practice of planning shows that "the most correct to design the pace of large and complex industries based on the development of plans for specific industries that make up this industry" 107.
It is also widely practiced by enterprises to develop counter plans - "look from below". Such plans do not eliminate the hierarchy of planning, but allow you to form a three-dimensional vision of industry prospects and eventually develop an optimal plan solution. Through substantive, detailed planning, a feasibility study of sectoral plans is provided. The form of planning at the level of individual enterprises is a promfintechplan (today's analogues of this document, similar in structure and content, are a business plan for the development of the enterprise or a feasibility study of an investment project).
When developing proportions (structures), all economic relations are taken into account. The state plan specifies that there should be "a dependence between the individual elements of the plan, which would ensure its harmonious overfulfillment (ope-rative development). For this, the necessary prerequisites must be met in the plan itself. For example, geological exploration and hydro-logical research must outpace the development of mining and agriculture, so that the reserves of explored resources can be immediately involved in the matter if the plan of the relevant industry is exceeded. Geodetic work should be designed so that critical areas are covered by sub-maps and measurements before geological work begins. Mechanical engineering should have such a capacity in the production of both industrial and transport and agricultural equipment that could ensure the development of transport operations in advance of the plan of the mining and processing industry or agriculture. Rail transport should work with the reserve necessary for both seasonal loads and transportation of raw materials and products of industries that exceed their plans 108. Thus, a planned cascade of advanced development is organized.
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Proportions that are crucial for the development of the economy are calculated and justified in the most detailed way (for example, the proportion of capital in the total economy).
If the necessary levels of development are determined in the planning of the pace, then in the planning of proportions (ratios) a thorough check is made as to the extent to which the planned pace of development is provided with resources, the resources themselves are interconnected (balanced) and provided with the necessary reserves.
The planning of proportions includes the analysis of costs and resources, the interconnection of all industries, including production capacities, investment, economic power, raw materials, money, etc.
These two areas of planning organically and most closely complement each other. Just as the design of production growth in an industry cannot be adopted before the possibilities of its material and technical support are fully revealed, so the calculations of proportions cannot be completed without the final establishment of development goals. In this regard, in practice, the preparation of the plan itself begins simultaneously with the design of production, and with the design of resource projects, and with the design of balance sheets *. In the end, by the method of sequential (variant) approximations, the balance is “summarized”. The result is an optimal quantitative and qualitative relationship between rates and proportions, and the plan ultimately indicates what needs to be done and determines how best to achieve it, thus becoming a key organizing element.
Practical implementation of the advanced development model and planning experience give rise to a special method of analyzing economic proportions and ensuring them in the plan from the moment of implementation of the first GOELRO plan. With the power of this method, an analysis of the proportions that develop in the economy is carried out, the dependence of one industry on another is quantitatively measured, specific tasks of a particular industry are determined to achieve the necessary proportionality.
Balances - a method of specific study of economic proportions and at the same time a practical mechanism that ensures the qualitative implementation of key management functions of planning, organization and control. In planning, a whole system of balances is used, reflecting the numerous forms of communication between various aspects of the economy and its industries.
To characterize the most general proportions, the balance of the national economy is drawn up; for the purpose of linking accumulation and consumption, the balance of national income is developed; in the coordination of supply and demand, the balance of monetary income and expenditures of the population is developed, etc.
When planning cross-sectoral and sectoral proportions, the proportions of technical and economic properties are of paramount importance material balances. To them
* For example, the preparation of the annual plan for the year 1941 began with a Gosplan with consideration and design
Balanced connections.
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Chapter 3. Planning includes the balance of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, electricity, fuel (in general in conventional fuel and by type of fuel), equipment (all equipment in low terms and by main types in kind), construction and forest materials, the most important types of mining and chemical raw materials, basic chemicals and chemical fertilizers, the most important types of agricultural raw materials, the main types of industrial and food products, the balance of transportation (transport balance), etc. For many balances, a regional section is needed, providing competent planning for the deployment of production forces, their optimal combination with each other and transport services.
More particular proportions between individual branches of the economy are reflected in the balance sheets of individual products. The coal industry's links with metallurgy, power plants, railways, and other fuel consuming industries are revealed through the balance of coal. Specific ratios in the development of metallurgy, mechanical engineering, transport and construction are determined by means of balance sheets of rolled, cast iron and steel.
And so on every industry and on every product. This painstaking, professional, rough work ultimately determines the qualitative organization of economic growth.
If the necessary levels of development are recorded in the planning of the pace, then in the development of balances a thorough check is made to see how the project levels are interconnected, provided with resources and reserves. Plans of implementation and plans of use are drawn up - "chess of implementation". Implementation plans are drawn up in physical terms with a geographical reference, use plans are drawn up in monetary terms, setting the movement on the distribution network - a plan of turnover.
It becomes clear how much coal is needed to obtain the necessary amounts of electricity, smelting steel, manufacturing components and assembling cars and tractors. The latter, in turn, are included in the plans for the development of agriculture with a calculated final increase in food production. At one end of the chain is a ton of coal, and at the other - we are meat and liters of milk. Planning becomes connected and logically verified, rationally designed and practically organized intersectoral production and technological chains.
As a result, the country's economy is organized as a single, holistic system with a concentration of resources, large scale effect, lack of parallelism, clear specialization of enterprises and organized inter-industry cooperation chains, based on calculated volumes of exchange of all necessary resources for production at various levels - from the supply of electricity to the supply of raw materials, components and equipment.
DneproHPP produces electricity necessary for the life of people and the work of enterprises in the region, Turxib provides passenger communication and cargo transportation.
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Crystal growth between Siberia and Central Asia, factories in Magnitogorsk, Lipetsk, Chelyabinsk, Novokuznetsk and Norilsk produce the metal necessary for GAZ, ZIS and Uralva gonzavka. The general state plan connects all industries and regions, the key is the emergence of "bottlenecks" and overproduction of certain types of products. In general, the planning of proportions using the balance method allows you to build the economy as a well-organized system, radically reduce the risks of economic crises (chaos), establish optimal ratios in the economy, provides a correct assessment of bottlenecks, imbalances and the development of adequate measures to overcome them, including through the introduction of advanced technologies, is a condition for the advanced development of the economy. In addition, supply and demand, as well as production and consumption, are balanced, the economy is insured against crises of overproduction.
Synthetic balances are used to characterize and measure overall economic proportions. These include financial and budgetary balances, the balance of labor.
If each synthetic balance has its own special method of composition, then
General methodological bases are used for material balances.
Every balance consists of two balancing parts: input and expenditure. The first part of the material balance determines all possible resources (due to production, stocks, imports), and in the second part - all expenses in the planned period (for production and construction purposes, for personal consumption, for export, for the creation of reserves). All this is taken into account on a general economic scale, in the context of specific regions, industries, in order to be able to draw up a specific targeted plan for logistics.
Means of production
Items of consumption
Resources
Resources
Production Including by manufacturers Imports and special deliveries Residues from suppliers at the beginning of the planned period Out of them by suppliers
Total Distribution Production and operational needs Construction Market Fund Export
Production Including manufacturers of procurement (total) of them by ministries
Import Balances at the beginning of the planned period Total Distribution Market Fund
Industrial processing Industrial consumption Fund of state budget organizations
63
Chapter 3. Planning Means of production
Items of consumption
State Reserve Reserve Government Residues from suppliers at the beginning of the planned period Out of them by suppliers
Total
Workwear and Specialty Fund Export State Reserve
Reserve Government Other consumers Balances at the end of the planned period Total
Table 2. Approximate list of indicators of material balance 109
Parish
Materials
Expense
Products
Ore Lime FSH 40 Pvc Electrodes O2 for Oxidation Total
100,000 111,065 41,988 0,200 8,200 3,742 265,194
Metal Slag Gas Nezazhka
71,727 184,812 8,657 –0,002
Total
265,194
Table 3. Example of material balance
Balances are dynamic, for example, the development of the chemical industry allows the introduction of new products. Plastics, artificial fibers, leather, other chemical products largely replace black and non-ferrous metals, wood, products made from natural agricultural raw materials, etc. A striking example is composite materials (organoplasty, text-liths, new types of polymers, metal composites, ceramic composites, etc.), which are widely used in almost all industries. This, in turn, leads to a change in a number of balances. For many balance sheets, a regional section is important, which facilitates the justification of the location of enterprises, their optimal combination with each other and the rationalization of transport work.
The size of the production of certain types of products, which constitute the main source of balance resources, are designed in the development of sectoral strategies and the planning of relevant sectors of the economy, and the share of the compilers of the base falls primarily on the definition of its consumable part. The basis of the design for the consumable part - the consumption of resources are the norms. Therefore
64
CRYSTAL GROWTH norm - the core, the core of the balance. Material consumption rates are dynamic. The development of technologies and methods of production organization leads to a significant change in the norms of material consumption, which are necessarily taken into account in long-term planning. Without sound consumption standards, it is impossible to draw up acceptable balances, and rationing is the basic element of planned work. Moreover, as noted earlier, one of the factors of continuous improvement of the economy’s efficiency is an organized, regular revision of the norms in the direction of reducing the costs of materials.
In general, balance work requires high qualifications. When drawing up a plan for the development of the economy, tens of thousands of different balances are actually developed. This is done in the period under review using arithmetic.
Reporting year
Current year
Plan
Expected implementation
Planned year
1. Current production capacity at the beginning of the planned period 2. Disposal for the planned period
3. Current production capacity at the end of the planned period 4. Required production capacity at the end of the planned period - total Including: a) to ensure the production schedule; b) backup capacity. 5. Additional need for production capacity 6. Coverage of additional need: a) by improving technological processes, reconstruction of individual aggregates, intensification of production at existing enterprises; b) by introducing new production capacities at new and existing enterprises
Table 4. Approximate scheme of production capacity balance for certain types of products
The total balance of production capacities for certain types of production is shown in Table 4. Appendix 5 provides the schemes of the consolidated financial and economic balance of the national economy (Table 11), the balance of fixed assets (Table 12),
65
Chapter 3. Planning of the balance of production, consumption and accumulation (Table 13) and the balance of cash income and expenses of the population (Table 14).
Today, it is obviously easier to organize balance sheets through the use of modern digital technologies and centralized norm-setting. Big data and advanced analytics can now be used effectively to justify norms, and in dynamics (depending, for example, on changes in weather conditions or resource prices in world markets), as well as to dynamically change all related plans.
If there are reasonable norms and modern digital technologies are used, it is possible to calculate any balances in the shortest possible time, draw up reasonable plans for the development of industries, regions, project implementation, and dynamic changes in all related plans.
Moreover, a normally built digital balance system makes a lot of controllers unnecessary and allows you to radically reduce the volume of all kinds of reporting, get rid of quasi-indicators that lead away from the essence of economic processes.
Balance of the national economy. For the first time in the world in practice, the idea of drawing up the balance of the national economy for 1923–1924 was implemented in our country.
This development was decades ahead of Western countries, where macro-statistics and macro-analysis of this scale began to be formed in the mid-thirties in the form of a system of national accounts.
The balance of the national economy is drawn up to characterize the most general proportions of the economy. It allows you to determine the connections between the main sectors of the economy, to show the distribution of national income. Until 1953, several balances of the national economy are drawn up with varying degrees of periodicity, and from 1953 they begin to be drawn up annually.
Already in the system of summary tables of the first balance of the national economy 1923–1924 the Matrix of Years 79×49 main industry, product and consumer positions. In general, the balance of the national economy and the table, which served as a prototype of a new direction in the system of balance work, are a phenomenon that has no analogues in the world at that time. Matrix 79×49 displays the most important inter-industry links in the economy and, in fact, is the initial form of inter-industry balance.
Inter-industry balance. The next step in the development of the balance method of planning is the creation of cross-industry balances. For the first time in the world, in 1889 the Russian Economist Vladimir Karpovich Dmitriev (1868–1913) proposes the idea of using a system of linear equations to describe intersectoral relations in economics 110.
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The idea of intersectoral balance appears also in the works of Carl Ballod. An important contribution to the development of the method of intersectoral balance is made by domestic economists A. B. Chayanov and A. A. Bogdanov.
The intersectoral balance is a continuation of the practice of intersectoral relations and the practice of drawing up the balance of the national economy at a new and qualitatively higher level. At the heart of the inter-industry balance sheet is the miscalculation of the links between the main sectors of the economy in terms of mutual need for resources and manufactured goods. The instrument of analysis is a system of linear equations, and technological coefficients are used to calculate the connections.
In the preparation of inter-
T A T A Z
Industries - Consumers
1
a11 a21 a31
an1 W1
P1
2
a12 a22 a32
3
a13 a23 a33
I Intermediate value
an2 W2
P2
an3
III
M1
Y1
M2
Y2
Release
m
a1m a2m a3m
anm Wm
Pm
Mm
Ym
Final consumption
Subtotal: GNP by use
G1 G2
X1 X2
Y1 Y2
I1 I2
II
In
Gn
Xn
Yn
C1 C2
Cn W *
P *
IV Redistribution of National Product
I + III
I I
+
I
I I
1
2
3
- and l with a r t O
and l e t and d o w and o r p
n
I'm not in D.
i t t o m and o t s
Total: GNP by expenditure
Figure 18. General scheme of inter-industry balance
The balance sheet divides the volume of goods for end-users and products produced for domestic consumption by industries. Thus, "the total output of all industries consists of two components - the output for final consumption and the output for cross-industry consumption (to ensure the production of products from other industries)" 111.
The principal novelty and new quality of the method of inter-industry balance is that it allows solving the reverse problem in the planning and organization of the economy - setting the target level of consumption, to calculate the required volume of output of all sectors of the economy, which can provide this target level of consumption. Prior to the invention of the method of intersectoral balances, the solution of the inverse problem does not occur.
In Russia, the compilation of inter-industry balance sheets begins in the 1950-ies and is subject to varying degrees of intensity up to the present day. The last time Rosstat published tables "cost-release" in 2017.
Intersectoral balances raise to a new level the application of mathematical methods in the planning and organization of the economy, which are widely developed in domestic science and planning practice. The most striking is the development of the national school of economic and mathematical modeling and pro-gramming, the outstanding representative of which is the creator of the theory of linear
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Chapter 3. Planning
Leonid Vitalievich Kontorovich - receives the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1975 "for his contribution to the theory of optimal allocation of resources". Conclusions. Thus, the development of unified development plans crowns the process of formation of the state planning system. Plans become the central element of the model of advanced economic development and the practical mechanism for organizing such development. The system of state planning and advanced development of the economy learns the following principles:
1. Primacy of the idea of development for planning. 2. Target organization of the economy: big goals and projects, planned hierarchy,
Target tree, time series.
3. Satisfying needs is the main goal. The basis of planning -
economic indicators, the accounting value of monetary indicators.
4. Development strategy. “Leading link” means the definition of those priorities that can make a decisive contribution to the achievement of development goals: specific industries, key technologies, decisive economic ties (proportions).
5. Interlinked planning of rates and proportions. Sectoral and cross-industry balancing of plans, providing realism, resource justification and consistency of plans.
6. Constant priority of the following proportions: faster growth of investment rates, faster growth of labor productivity over consumption growth; the constancy of the goals of introducing modern technologies and new equipment, increasing efficiency and reducing costs.
7. Advanced study and development of natural productive forces. 8. Advance the development of the infrastructure framework of the country, the creation of a basic,
First of all, energy infrastructure.
9. Unity and integrity of planning, ensuring: I) targeted development; Development strategies and priorities;
III) balance of plans, elimination of parallel
Lism;
(iv) Concentration of resources and economies of scale; V) vertical specialization of production; (vi) horizontal inter-sectoral connectivity (co-
(b) production between them;
VII) territorial concentration of production on the basis of their optimal location and combination (combination).
10. Organization headed by the State Planning Committee of the unified system
Planning bodies of staff type:
Planning
- at the level of industries - two new subordination to the Gosplan
and the relevant agency;
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CRYSTAL GROWTH — creation of feedback channel in the economic management system
the work of regional commissioners of the Gosplan;
— the allocation of the most important function of ensuring horizontal, intersectoral organization of the economy in a separate management body - Gossnab, which provides in real time "seamless" and fast operation of production and cooperation chains, organization and control of supplies.
3.10. State planning in world economic theory and foreign practice
Nobel Prize in Economics 1973. B. Leontiev for the theory of inter-industry
Left Balance
Vasily Vasilyevich Leontiev, who took part in the preparation of the first Ba-lance of the national economy in 1923–1924 and wrote a review on it, received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1973 for creating the theory of intersectoral balances (the method of "cost-release").
Leontiev’s merit in studying, deepening and developing the concept, which becomes one of the elements of state planning and organization of economic development in the period of 1929–1955.
The input-output method was successfully implemented by Vasily Leontiev in the 1930-s when constructing the first input-output tables of the United States for 1919 and 1929 for 44 sectors of the economy. By the middle of the 1950-ies of the idea of B. Leontiev in the analysis of "cost-release" acquires world recognition and fame. Tables "cost-release" are developed, primarily in the United States, France, the Netherlands, North-vegia, Australia.
Subsequently, these tables are built in more than 90 countries. Today, detailed tables of intersectoral balance, detailed to several thousand outputs, are regularly published by the statistical agencies of all developed countries. For example, in the Netherlands and Germany published a detailed table of the inter-industry balance of the national economy "2500 on 2500" 112.
C 1993 The United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA93), which, on the basis of input-output tables, determines the volume and structure of the most important macroeconomic indicators and, above all, the gross domestic product (GDP) calculated in three ways).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is now checking the consistency of country GDP calculations and other macroeconomic indicators with intersectoral balance indicators, and is also assessing the quality of calculations of the System of National Accounts (SNA) indicators of all its participants on a six-point scale. One of the most important criteria for assessing the quality of the system of national accounts by the IMF is the presence in the country of a reported intersectoral balance. For
69
Chapter 3. Planning of countries where inter-industry balance is not made, the quality assessment is not higher than two (2 113.
Planning in convergence theory. The concept of convergence and the corresponding pattern are borrowed by John Kenneth Galbraith from biological - the most advanced systems and are aware of convergence in the process of evolution of signs of different groups of organisms. As a result of existence in the same conditions, individuals of different species acquire similar structural features.
Convergence theory in economics transfers this coherence from biological systems to the study and construction of an economic system. Based on Galbraith’s theory of convergence, planning and the market exist simultaneously in one economic system. They do not contradict each other, but complement each other. They are in a convergence relationship.
The theory of convergence in economics has been developing since the 1970s of the last century. A significant contribution to its development is made by the first Nobel laureate in economics 1969 ("for the creation and application of dynamic models to the analysis of economic processes") Jan Timbergen, the creators of the theory of the post-industrial (information) society Daniel Bell and Alvin Tof-fler, the founder of the theory of social stratification and mobility Pitirim Sorokin, the author of the theory of growth poles Francois Perru and many others.
The very interaction, the convergence of planning and market systems, according to Galbraith, occurs as a result of the development of the same technological culture. The scale of modern production inherent in developing countries requires a "similar system of plan and organization" 115.
Vasily Vasilyevich Leontiev (5 August 1905, Munich — 5 February 1999, New York) - an outstanding Russian economist, Nobel Prize winner in economics for 1973 Mr. "for the development of the method of "too-you-issue" and for its application to important economic problems." V 1925 He completed his studies in philosophy and sociology at the Leningrad University, later studied economics in Berlin and received a doctorate for his thesis "Circle of Economics". C 1931 Mr. Leontiev works in America. During the Second World War, he was a consultant on economic planning for the US Air Force. 1954 President of the Econometric Society; 1970 President of the American Economic Association; in 1988 Mr. - is invited for consultations in Moscow. In the same year he was elected a foreign member of the Academy of Sciences of our country114
The planning system of convergence theory includes the public sector, large manufacturing, transport, energy and financial corporations. By specific units of the market system, it means small and medium-sized construction, repair and industrial firms, farms, service companies, catering and retail enterprises, etc. As a promising task for countries where state planning is not developed, Galbraith notes: "It will be necessary to create a state planning system.
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CRYSTAL GROWTH of the organ" 116. Galbraith describes the experience of state planning in Russia 1929–1955 "When the country moved to the creation of a huge industrial structure of metallurgical plants, electrification systems, transport network, fuel industry, then undoubtedly the planning system, instructions from the ministries and the state plan, again proved to be very effective. In the end, this is how a great industrial power was created 117. Galbraith emphasizes that the planning and market system complement each other and interact without being antagonists. Speaking about the planned system, which works in conjunction with the market system, there are public-private partnership projects, millions of small and medium-sized companies that become executors of state orders and sub-suppliers of large corporations.
In his most recent work, The Economics of Innocent Man, 26 February 2004, John Kenneth Gal-Brait questions the very division between the “private” and “public” sectors of the U.S. economy, considering it largely a fiction rather than a reality. The ratio in the economic system of the organizing role of the state and market self-organization. World economic thought
John Kenneth Galbraith (15 October 1908, Iona Station, Canada—29 April 2006) was an outstanding American economist, a representative of institutionalist and Keynesian thought, and one of the leading economic theorists of the twentieth century. He teaches at the University of California, Harvard and Princeton universities and advises US presidents on economic matters. President of the American Economic Association in 1972. Recipient of the Frank Seidman (1975), Veblen–Commons (1976) and V. Leontief (2000) awards. Foreign member of our country’s Academy of Sciences (1988)118
Nobel Prize in Economics 2001 Joseph Stiglitz, speaking about the relationship between the market and the state in the economy, notes: “Both the market and the state have their limitations and can show their insolvency, so both must interact. Moreover, the nature of this partnership varies from country to country depending on the level of their political and economic development 119.
At the same time, for each state, the model of such interaction is unique, and the need for state planning is higher, the higher the level of challenges faced by the country, and the more complicated the socio-economic system of the country. Also, those countries that seek leadership positions in the world or lag behind in their development and strive to overcome their lag are in great need of a state development organization.
The Nobel laureate in economics, speaking about the imperfection of the market and the need for a bridge organizing role of the state in the economy, notes: “I am not stupid enough to believe that the market itself will solve all social problems. inequality,
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Chapter 3. Planning unemployment, environmental pollution are insurmountable without the active participation of the state 120.
Laurence Klein, another Nobel laureate in economics "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policy", considering the fundamental theoretical issues of combining government planning and the market in economics, emphasizes: "Oscar Lange and Fred Taylor are more than a few examples of the most important economic models in the world 50 Years ago, we proved that it is theoretically possible to install market-based education in the <Planner> economy. In those markets where there are surpluses, prices should be lowered, in those where unsatisfied demand manifests itself, they should be raised. The state plan must continue to change prices in an operational manner, without fixing them, until all markets are clear 121.
Joseph Schumpeter notes: “In a number of branches of the capitalist industry, conditions may arise when equilibrium prices and production become theoretically uncertain. Planning for progress, in particular, systematically coordinated and consistent innovation in the economy, will be much more successful in preventing sharp rises and spa- tions of production than automatic or directed changes in interest rates or loan offers 123. George Soros, in The Crisis of World Capitalism, emphasizes: “Social values are possible, less certain than market values, but society cannot exist without them. Market values have been given the status of social values, but they are not able to fulfill this function. Market values cannot replace public consciousness, or, to use the old-fashioned expression, civic virtues. The invisible hand is incapable of judging interests that are not within its competence 124.
Joseph Eugene Stiglitz. 09.02.1943 Gary, Indiana) - an outstanding American economist, a foreign member of the RAS (2003), representative of Neo-Keynesianism. Nobel Prize in Economics (2001) "for their analysis of markets with asymmetric information." He is educated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. V 1992–1997 In the administration b. Clinton works for the Council of Economic Advisers. V 1997–2000 Vice-President for Development Policy and Chief Economist of the World Bank. V 2008 G. with A. Senom creates an international commission on the main indicators of economic activity and social progress, which proposes to use the indicator “quality of life” instead of GDP as a criterion for the economic development of society122
Thomas Piketty, a professor at the Paris School of Economics, a foreign member of the U.S. Philosophical Society, argues in Capital in the XXI Century 125 that over the past 250 years, the problem of social inequality has not been solved within the framework of market self-organization, and the rate of increase in capital is consistently higher than the rate of economic growth. Today, in terms of inequality, society is approaching the period of the birth of a market system in its
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CRYSTAL GROWTH is in a “wild” form, and state participation, including in the tax sphere, is required to reduce inequality.
Giovanni Arrighi and Immanuel Wallerstein, authors of the doctrine of world-system analysis, investigating the problem of inequality throughout the world economy, conclude that there is a permanent quantitative and qualitative redistribution of resources in favor of the countries that form the core of the world economy from the countries that occupy its periphery. It is noted the need for the state to participate in the organization of cross-border movement of capital, goods and people. Government policy in this area is often crucial for the successful functioning of the business. In addition, it is the state that saves private entrepreneurs from a significant part of the costs, taking on the costs of creating a common infrastructure, implementing environmental programs, restoring natural resources, etc. “The weaker the state, the less money can be saved by economically productive activities” 126, concludes I. Wallerstein. In general, John Keynes in principle considers economic theory not so much as “the science of thinking in categories of models”, but as “the skill of choosing adequate models”, meaning that in principle there is no single one - the only correct theory of economics and the only correct models of economic development corresponding to it.
It follows that in the economy it is necessary first of all to be able to create models of developments that are adequate to the emerging challenges, tasks to be solved and changing realities, and the opposition of the planned and market principles in the economy (“or plan or market”) is a far-fetched (false) dilemma. Like the fear of disrupting market mechanisms, organizing the development of the economy is a far-fetched and counter-productive stereotype.
The best practices of economic development are based on a reasonable combination of state organization and market self-organization, on the optimal involvement in national development of the strengths of the planned and market principles in the economy. Thus, the organizing role of the state is effective and, as a rule, has a decisive
value for:
— formation of a holistic and reliable understanding of the whole economy
system and its structure;
diagnosis of bottlenecks that hinder the development of the economic system as a whole or in general specific industries, the organization of elimination of these bottlenecks;
in general, its main sectoral, technological, spatial priorities in particular;
— organization of advanced and frontal (not fragmentary) implementation
the latest technologies and new equipment;
creation and development of "public goods", including fundamental science,
Education and health;
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Chapter 3. Planning - solving the problems of cross-border outflow and redistribution of resources,
uncertainty and limited rationality;
— creation of mechanisms for cheap and long-term financing of development projects
economy;
- creation of a common basic infrastructure; - antimonopoly regulation, development of small and medium-sized enterprises -
the government;
- organization of development of complex territories and capital-intensive industries,
High concentration of resources and economies of scale;
Design and organization of complex international, inter-industry, interregional, sectoral and cluster development projects. In the market self-organization mode, these issues are not solved or solved.
The market is bad (the market is inefficient).
Market self-organization is effective and is usually crucial for the flexible and rapid response of the economy to changing consumer preferences, tastes, needs (especially in the final consumption segment), which are adequately worked out due to competition and rapid entrepreneurial response to demand and price signals in the economy.
In the system of organization of these issues by the state, they either do not solve
They are either solved slowly or poorly (the state is inefficient here).
So, both the state organization and the market self-organization have their strengths and weaknesses. Both the state organization and the market self-organization in the economy, applied separately, are ineffective each in its own way for different reasons and in different issues, but in principle neither one nor the other can equally ensure the optimal use of limited resources in the economy.
Thus, the best and most effective practices of economic development are to determine and implement the optimal combination of state planning and market self-organization of the economy.
This is the optimal combination - for each country, for each specific
economy, for each particular historical situation.
In many ways, it is in the correct definition and practical implementation of this optimum that the maturity and effectiveness of state figures of a particular country are manifested.
Economic concentration and growth in the theory of Schumpeter-Galbraith Exploring the growth of the economy, economic dynamics, and not economic equilibrium, Joseph Schumpeter and John Kenneth Galbraith come to the same conclusion - about the great social benefits of high concentration of the economy and economies of scale for the qualitative development and quantitative growth of the economy.
Joseph Schumpeter worked separately from John Kenneth Galbraith, but both eco-friendly.
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Crystal Growth Nominees formulate a practically similar concept of public benefit for the growth of the economy of high concentration of capital, large economies of scale and economy development.
Achieving rapid technological progress and strong economic momentum requires planning and a concentration of resources. These can be provided by the state sector, large companies and corporations able to accumulate the substantial resources needed for further development and to invest in research and development (R&D) and projects advancing science and technology.
Schumpeter and Galbraith prove the public utility of such a structure of the economic system. In economic theory, this concept is included as the theory of Schumpeter-Galbraith.
In addition, Joseph Schumpeter for the first time in the world introduces into scientific circulation the term "innovation" and is the auto-rative theory of innovative economy, proving that for innovations that act as a factor of development and growth of the economy, a factor of high economic dynamics, a necessary condition is a high concentration of capital and a large economies of scale ("effective monopolies").
Max Weber (1864–1920), a German sociologist, philosopher, historian and political economist, explores the management of production and exchange in highly concentrated companies of the world (monopoly) and concludes that they are built "on the principles of rational organization."
These principles, by M. Weber, as follows: 1) division of labor, specialization, elimination of paralysis
Lelism;
Josef Alois Schumpeter (8 February 1883, Moravia, Austria-Hungary — 8 Yan - varya 1950 Connecticut, USA) is a prominent Austrian and American economist, political scientist, sociologist and historian of economic thought. Privatdocent of the University of Vienna, professor of political economy at the University of Chernovtsov (1909), Professor of Political Economy at the University of Graz (1911). V 1913–1914 He works at Columbia University in New York. C 1917 Until the end of the First World War, he worked as an employee of the Commissariat for Wartime Economics. C 15 March by 17 October 1919 He holds the position of Minister of Finance of Austria. Subsequently, he holds the positions of Professor of Rhine (Bonn, 1925–1932) the Harvard University ( C 1932 G.) In the United States, in various years, the economist holds the posts of President of the Econometric Society (1940–1941) President of the American Economic Association 1948 St Petersburg.127
2) unity of command; 3) a hierarchical structure; 4) depersonalisation of relationships; 5) the use of sanctions and incentives 128. Economic development through supply and supply-side theory emerged in the 1970s in response to problems in the world economy, including the sharp rise in oil prices. Traditional measures to revive the economy
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Chapter 3. Planning by stimulating demand in practice does not work. Stagflation occurs - temporary growth of both inflation and unemployment, stagnation of production. This acutely denotes a crisis of previously applied economic concepts, and a request for new ones is born.
The ideologists of the new supply theory are American economists
M. Boskin, A. Laffer, P. Roberts, M. Feldstein, M. Evans and a few others.
The economic theory of supply shifts the focus of attention from demand to supply: it is not demand that determines supply, but, on the contrary, supply determines demand. The economy as a whole is developing not through stimulating demand, but through the development of supply, including the creation of new infrastructure and new industries. According to the supply theory, the task of the state is to organize the distribution and use of resources to increase production and, accordingly, the filling of the market with goods. This leads to a decrease in unemployment, an increase in demand and, ultimately, the recovery of the economy.
The supply theory largely influences the formation of new economic policies in a number of leading countries, including the United States (the period of R. Ray-Ghana, United Kingdom (M. Thatcher) and Germany (CDU party).
In the United States, the implementation of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) has become an integral part of such state policy. Traditionally, when implementing military programs, the Pentagon transfers most orders to the largest US companies. Additional support is being provided to the private sector. For example, military laboratories provide technical assistance to contractors and suppliers. Substantial funds are allocated for advanced R&D with the involvement of the best scientific and engineering institutions. Thus, in 1986 about 34,6 % increase in R&D expenses in the USA is accounted for by the SDI program. Thus, the state, through its order and with budget money, initiates advanced technological developments and the modernization of the production base in the private sector of the economy, primarily in large companies. The latter further create the supply of new goods in the market, far beyond the military sector of the economy, and also create demand for new supplies and thereby contribute to the development of their suppliers, a significant part of which belongs to small and medium-sized businesses. Thus, the entire cycle of development and growth of the economy is launched along the chain.
Since 1929 - since the beginning of the implementation of the model of advanced development - national experience has been studied abroad, primarily in the United States. Here is a list of only some books published on this subject in the United States as early as the 1930-ies:
"Dawn in Russia" by Valdo Franko; "Russia Today: What Can We Learn From Them?" by Sherwood Eddy; The New Economic Order by Kirby Page.
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CRYSTAL GROWTH "Planning" by Harry Leidler; The Road to America by William Foster 129. The catalyst for the practical use of our experience in the United States becomes
The Great Depression.
For example, US President Roosevelt personally initiated a project to develop a depressed Tennessee Valley macroregion, whose economy is built on primitive agriculture, as part of his “new course”.
18 May 1933 The Federal Corporation for Organization and Development Management of the Tennessee Macroregion — TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority).
The Tennessee Valley Development Project is designed for several decades, affects the territory 7 States: the main territory of Tennessee, significant territories of Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky and relatively small parts of Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, covers 163 The district is responsible for the following tasks:
- electrification of the territory and production of large volumes of cheap electricity
Trolley energy;
— creating transport infrastructure; — establishing navigation on the Tennessee River; — creating new industrial centres; — developing fisheries; — modernising education and healthcare systems; — establishing irrigation systems and municipal and industrial
water supply;
- protection of wildlife, soils and the organization of rational land use; - flood control. Federal Corporation TVA is headed by the Board of Directors, which appoints
President in consultation with Congress.
"The Board of Directors is authorized to: - provide financial assistance to the states in whose territory energy is located.
Hetetic objects belonging to TVA;
- acquire ownership of various objects required TVA in those states and districts that were part of TVA, notifying the authorities in these states in advance;
- determine the level of wages in the states that entered into TVA" 130. Financing of the project is carried out by the federal government through the placement of loans and by attracting loans from international financial institutions.
In the 1930-ies in the framework of TVA is built 6 large dams, many small and 3 large hydropower plants. In addition, the state acquires from business a system of power lines and several hydroelectric power plants (HPPs), including Wilson in the state of Alabama - a major energy company.
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Chapter 3. Planning of the Shay HPP of the Ten-Nessie River Power System.
In fact, the state conducts electrification and organizes the unified energy sector of the economy in such a way as to provide the economy with cheap electricity. At the same time, federal hydroelectric power plants become regulators of prices for electricity sold to consumers.
Large amounts of cheap electricity are becoming the basis for the development of energy-intensive industrial production of metallurgy and the chemical industry, in particular, factories for the production of bound nitrogen, fertilizers and explosives. In 1939 the aluminum company's factories
Figure 19. Macroregion of Action TVA on USA map
Alcoa ranks first in the United States for aluminum smelting.
By the beginning of the Second World War, the energy capacity of the region is approaching 1 million kW, TVA attracts new enterprises for the production of metal manganese and manganese alloys, ferroalloys and electric steel. Phosphorus fertilizer enterprises are actively developing. The territory becomes the most important center of aluminum and ammunition production.
Industrial development creates new jobs. In the first year, 28 thousand local residents find work; in the second, 98 thousand; and in the third, nearly 200 thousand [131].
By the end of the Second World War, TVA will organize the creation of a center for nuclear research and production of nuclear weapons with the construction of a new city of Oakridge.
In the post-war years, the pace of development of the Tennessee macroregion has not decreased. V 1950The years from the federal budget to the macroregion are invested almost 1 billion US dollars (in the prices of those years). Thermal and later nuclear power plants are being built in the region as the water resources of the Ten-Nessie River are exhausted.
For 65 years of the project, the following results were obtained: - per capita income in the region reaches the national average with a significantly lower cost of living compared to urbanized areas of the United States;
- population growth from 4 million to 7 million people by the beginning of 1990;
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CRYSTAL GROWTH - the creation of a large number of new industrial centers; - electrification of all rural areas; - the Tennessee River becomes navigable; - more than 10 times reduced damage from floods. The development management model TVA - largely based on the development management methodology and experience of economic construction of our country 30-ies of the twentieth century - is relevant today and is recognized as the best practice. And already on a new technological, industrial, digital base can be used to solve the problems of complex spatial development of entire macroregions that require a special approach, a combination of efforts of the state and investors (for example, within the framework of the decision of the task set by the Head of State to develop Eastern Siberia).
Note here that after the end of the Second World War, state planning began to be actively used throughout the economy in many countries of the world, in particular in Japan, France, the Scandinavian countries, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan.
Although the models, methods, depth and scope of planning differ somewhat among these countries, the objectives underlying its use are the same. They concern the need to accelerate economic development and carry out fundamental modernisation.
To this end, public planning in these countries focuses on the following:
Key aspects:
— Economic development plans, usually 5 years or 4 years; - advanced development of key technologies and priority industries; - advanced infrastructure development; - organization and support of priority large-scale projects; - "growing" large national companies - "world champions". As noted by E. Mr. Yasin: “In Japan, in France ... planning has become a national experience, and many believe that it is thanks to planning that these countries have got on their feet” 132.
Today, many of the basic principles on which the national system of state planning was built in 1929–1955 are applied to some extent in the leading countries of the world.
idea of development. Here are some examples showing the primacy of the idea of development, image
future and greater goals for government planning.
In 1931 - at the peak of the Great Depression - in the treatise "Epic of America" (Epic of America), James Traslow Adams introduces the term "American dream", which refers to the path to benefits and equality through labor. Since then, no election campaign in the United States has been without this measure. Today it contains a whole range of aspects, including values and ideals, material and social well-being.
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Chapter 3. Planning